Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
73
Matched
273
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-09-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
MIL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
10.9%Valinor 8.7%market +1.8pp
P 11.0
F 12.1
V 10.9
1.2pp 1.092xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
COL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 1
11.4%Valinor 9.8%market +1.3pp
P 10.2
F 11.7
V 11.4
1.5pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
03 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
14.5%Valinor 13.5%market +0.5pp
P 13.4
F 12.1
V 14.5
2.3pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
12.8%Valinor 12.3%market -0.0pp
P 10.8
F 11.9
V 12.8
2.0pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
05 IN
TB vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
15.4%Valinor 15.0%market -0.1pp
P 14.6
F 14.1
V 15.4
1.3pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
06 IN
AZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
9.1%Valinor 9.0%market -0.3pp
P 11.1
F 11.9
V 9.1
2.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 965 avg 3 books
07 IN
MIL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
13.0%Valinor 13.5%market -0.5pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 13.0
1.3pp 1.092xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 6
7.5%Valinor 7.7%market -0.5pp
P 10.8
F 12.4
V 7.5
5.0pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
SD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
14.8%Valinor 14.9%market -0.6pp
P 14.1
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
10 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
10.8%Valinor 11.2%market -0.8pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 10.8
2.6pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
NYM vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
12.9%Valinor 13.3%market -0.9pp
P 10.7
F 11.3
V 12.9
2.2pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
12 IN
PIT vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
13.2%Valinor 13.6%market -0.9pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.2
1.7pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
13 IN
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 6
8.6%Valinor 9.2%market -1.1pp
P 11.4
F 12.4
V 8.6
3.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
COL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 4
12.0%Valinor 13.1%market -1.1pp
P 11.6
F 11.7
V 12.0
0.4pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
COL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 5
11.4%Valinor 12.0%market -1.1pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 11.4
1.0pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
16
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
12.1%Valinor 13.3%market -1.2pp
P 13.6
F 12.1
V 12.1
1.5pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
17 IN
SD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3
13.9%Valinor 14.8%market -1.4pp
P 13.1
F 11.7
V 13.9
2.2pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
18
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
10.0%Valinor 11.1%market -1.6pp
P 10.8
F 11.9
V 10.0
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
11.3%Valinor 12.3%market -1.6pp
P 11.2
F 12.6
V 11.3
1.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
20 IN
NYM vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
10.6%Valinor 11.7%market -1.6pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 10.6
2.4pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
21 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 15.3%market -1.7pp
P 14.7
F 12.6
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
8.5%Valinor 10.0%market -1.8pp
P 11.3
F 12.4
V 8.5
3.9pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
23 IN
PHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
13.2%Valinor 14.8%market -2.1pp
P 13.5
F 12.1
V 13.2
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
24 IN
STL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
8.7%Valinor 10.4%market -2.2pp
P 12.2
F 12.4
V 8.7
3.7pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 820 avg 3 books
25 IN
MIL vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
14.0%Valinor 15.7%market -2.2pp
P 15.1
F 12.9
V 14.0
2.2pp 1.092xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
26 IN
BOS vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
10.2%Valinor 12.6%market -2.4pp
P 12.7
F 12.6
V 10.2
2.5pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
27 IN
PIT vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
9.4%Valinor 11.8%market -2.4pp
P 9.9
F 11.9
V 9.4
2.4pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
28 IN
STL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
11.3%Valinor 13.2%market -2.4pp
P 16.1
F 12.6
V 11.3
4.8pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
29 IN
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
10.5%Valinor 13.0%market -2.5pp
P 13.9
F 12.6
V 10.5
3.4pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
30 IN
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
13.2%Valinor 15.3%market -2.6pp
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 13.2
2.8pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
31
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
10.8%Valinor 13.0%market -2.6pp
P 11.7
F 11.1
V 10.8
0.9pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
32 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 15.5%market -2.6pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 13.4
1.6pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
33 IN
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
8.8%Valinor 11.1%market -2.7pp
P 15.9
F 11.7
V 8.8
7.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
34 IN
BOS vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
9.4%Valinor 11.8%market -2.9pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 9.4
3.3pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
35 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
13.2%Valinor 15.6%market -2.9pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 13.2
1.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
36 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 16.4%market -3.0pp
P 11.9
F 11.9
V 13.9
2.1pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6
10.9%Valinor 13.6%market -3.2pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 10.9
2.9pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
38
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
11.2%Valinor 14.1%market -3.4pp
P 16.4
F 14.1
V 11.2
5.2pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
39 IN
SD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
14.4%Valinor 17.4%market -3.6pp
P 15.7
F 12.6
V 14.4
3.2pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
AZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
10.5%Valinor 14.0%market -4.0pp
P 10.5
F 11.7
V 10.5
1.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
41 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4
9.5%Valinor 13.0%market -4.0pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 9.5
4.7pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
42 IN
SD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 19.1%market -5.0pp
P 14.9
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.4pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
43 IN
PHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
14.1%Valinor 25.5%market -12.2pp
P 12.1
F 11.9
V 14.1
2.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 280 avg 3 books
44 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
16.9%Valinor 29.3%market -13.4pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 16.9
4.5pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
45 IN
SF vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
12.4%Valinor 7.7%market +4.4pp
P 6.2
F 10.9
V 12.4
6.2pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
SF vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 7
9.4%Valinor 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 6.6
F 10.3
V 9.4
3.8pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
PIT vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
8.9%Valinor 7.7%market +0.9pp
P 5.8
F 9.9
V 8.9
4.1pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1
8.9%Valinor 7.7%market +0.9pp
P 6.1
F 9.9
V 8.9
3.8pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
SF vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
12.9%Valinor 13.2%market -0.8pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 12.9
0.5pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
50 IN
BOS vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
12.4%Valinor 15.7%market -3.9pp
P 13.0
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.6pp 0.951xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
51 IN
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 16.4%market -4.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.4
V 12.9
0.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
52 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
14.1%Valinor 17.7%market -4.2pp
P 13.5
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.0pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
53 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
15.1%Valinor 18.8%market -4.4pp
P 14.3
F 12.4
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
13.1%Valinor 17.1%market -4.6pp
P 11.5
F 11.9
V 13.1
1.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
55 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
11.5%Valinor 15.7%market -4.7pp
P 12.5
F 11.9
V 11.5
1.0pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
56 IN
TOR vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
12.9%Valinor 17.1%market -4.8pp
P 13.3
F 12.1
V 12.9
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
57 IN
PHI vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
14.3%Valinor 18.4%market -4.8pp
P 13.1
F 12.1
V 14.3
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
58 IN
NYM vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
14.5%Valinor 18.9%market -5.1pp
P 14.3
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.1pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
59 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 2
11.6%Valinor 16.5%market -5.5pp
P 14.1
F 12.1
V 11.6
2.5pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
60 IN
AZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
11.3%Valinor 16.4%market -5.6pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 11.3
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
61 IN
COL vs BALKyle Bradish · slot 2
12.4%Valinor 17.4%market -5.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.4
V 12.4
0.3pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
62 IN
SF vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
15.1%Valinor 20.3%market -6.0pp
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 15.1
3.2pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
63 IN
HOU vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 20.3%market -6.3pp
P 13.2
F 12.4
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
64 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
12.1%Valinor 17.9%market -6.4pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 12.1
0.9pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
65 IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
12.2%Valinor 18.6%market -7.0pp
P 13.0
F 11.9
V 12.2
1.1pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
CIN vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 21.2%market -7.8pp
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 14.2
2.3pp 1.100xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
67 IN
ATL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
14.1%Valinor 21.2%market -7.8pp
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 14.1
2.7pp 1.117xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
68 IN
PIT vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
12.4%Valinor 19.9%market -8.2pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 12.4
0.7pp 1.028xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
69 IN
TB vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
14.5%Valinor 22.2%market -8.5pp
P 13.1
F 12.6
V 14.5
1.9pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
70
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
10.2%Valinor 18.8%market -9.2pp
P 10.5
F 11.7
V 10.2
1.5pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
71 IN
AZ vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2
12.2%Valinor 20.8%market -9.3pp
P 13.3
F 12.4
V 12.2
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
72
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
14.0%Valinor 23.6%market -10.4pp
P 14.1
F 13.6
V 14.0
0.5pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books
73 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3
11.4%Valinor 22.7%market -12.1pp
P 11.8
F 11.7
V 11.4
0.4pp 1.076xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Data context

777 sample flags
Status2442roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.