Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-17 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-17
52 matched props 83 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-18 Older: 2026-07-16

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 52
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 83
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-18 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-17 | Raw sportsbook rows: 52 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-17/strikeout_edges_2026-07-17.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs ATH | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.38
Strongest Gap Under +29.17%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -35.05% / Under gap +29.17%
Under +29.17%
DraftKings
4.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -32.14% / Under gap +26.19%
Under +26.19%
Model O 26.2% | U 73.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.2
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.61
Strongest Gap Under +20.54%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -26.39% / Under gap +20.54%
Under +20.54%
DraftKings
5.5
O -140 / U +109
Over gap -26.04% / Under gap +19.86%
Under +19.86%
BetMGM
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -25.16% / Under gap +17.71%
Under +17.71%
Model O 32.3% | U 67.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.6
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs PIT | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.69
Strongest Gap Under +19.98%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -25.97% / Under gap +19.98%
Under +19.98%
FanDuel
6.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -25.97% / Under gap +19.98%
Under +19.98%
DraftKings
6.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap -25.19% / Under gap +19.16%
Under +19.16%
BetMGM
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -25.81% / Under gap +18.52%
Under +18.52%
FanDuel
8.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -12.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -18.99% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -19.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -26.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -28.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.0% | U 65.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.4
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs SEA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.42
Strongest Gap Under +19.65%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -25.58% / Under gap +19.65%
Under +19.65%
DraftKings
5.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -24.76% / Under gap +18.71%
Under +18.71%
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -25.18% / Under gap +18.25%
Under +18.25%
Model O 29.4% | U 70.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.0
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs STL | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.74
Strongest Gap Over +13.14%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +13.14% / Under gap -19.24%
Over +13.14%
DraftKings
3.5
O -129 / U +101
Over gap +9.86% / Under gap -15.94%
Over +9.86%
Model O 66.2% | U 33.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.6
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs SD | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.99
Strongest Gap Over +10.36%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap +10.36% / Under gap -16.42%
Over +10.36%
FanDuel
4.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap +9.98% / Under gap -15.87%
Over +9.98%
Model O 53.5% | U 46.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.9
Colin Rea headshot

Colin Rea
CHC vs MIN | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.45
Strongest Gap Over +6.97%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +6.97% / Under gap -12.90%
Over +6.97%
DraftKings
3.5
O -133 / U +105
Over gap +4.84% / Under gap -10.70%
Over +4.84%
Model O 61.9% | U 38.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.7
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs KC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.96
Strongest Gap Over +6.27%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +6.27% / Under gap -12.35%
Over +6.27%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +4.22% / Under gap -11.33%
Over +4.22%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +3.00% / Under gap -9.14%
Over +3.00%
Model O 53.0% | U 47.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.3
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs TEX | 8 books
Play
Adj K 6.77
Strongest Gap Under +4.92%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -10.98% / Under gap +4.92%
Under +4.92%
FanDuel
7.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -10.98% / Under gap +4.92%
Under +4.92%
BetMGM
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -11.29% / Under gap +4.00%
Under +4.00%
DraftKings
7.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -9.20% / Under gap +3.22%
Under +3.22%
FanDuel
8.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -5.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -15.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -16.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -18.38% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.1% | U 62.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.4
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs MIL | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.77
Strongest Gap Under +2.37%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -8.32% / Under gap +2.37%
Under +2.37%
FanDuel
4.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -8.32% / Under gap +2.37%
Under +2.37%
DraftKings
4.5
O -137 / U +108
Over gap -7.80% / Under gap +1.91%
Under +1.91%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +1.90% / Under gap --
Over +1.90%
BetMGM
5.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -8.72% / Under gap +1.60%
Under +1.60%
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +0.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -3.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -9.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -11.65% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.3
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs ATL | 6 books
No Play
Adj K 3.09
Strongest Gap No Play +0.95%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +128 / U -163
Over gap -6.79% / Under gap +0.95%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap -5.67% / Under gap -0.31%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap -5.67% / Under gap -0.31%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap -1.45% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
2.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -4.66% / Under gap -2.04%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -9.61% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.1% | U 62.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 15.7
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs COL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.40
Strongest Gap No Play -2.25%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -3.70% / Under gap -2.25%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -4.86% / Under gap -2.25%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +113 / U -146
Over gap -3.03% / Under gap -3.27%
No Play
Model O 43.9% | U 56.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.5

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.