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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-18 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-18
125 matched props 56 unmatched
Older: 2026-07-17

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 125
Grouped Pitchers 20
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 56
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-18 | Raw sportsbook rows: 125 | Grouped pitcher entries: 20 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-18/strikeout_edges_2026-07-18.json
Max Meyer headshot

Max Meyer
MIA vs MIL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.66
Strongest Gap Under +16.94%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -24.39% / Under gap +16.94%
Under +16.94%
DraftKings
5.5
O -124 / U -103
Over gap -22.30% / Under gap +16.20%
Under +16.20%
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -21.07% / Under gap +15.02%
Under +15.02%
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -21.07% / Under gap +15.02%
Under +15.02%
FanDuel
7.5
O +390 / U --
Over gap -7.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -14.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -16.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -21.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -24.36% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.1% | U 66.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.7
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs PIT | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.64
Strongest Gap Under +16.85%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -24.47% / Under gap +16.85%
Under +16.85%
DraftKings
7.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap -22.72% / Under gap +16.69%
Under +16.69%
FanDuel
7.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -21.90% / Under gap +15.91%
Under +15.91%
FanDuel
7.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -21.90% / Under gap +15.91%
Under +15.91%
FanDuel
8.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -15.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -20.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -28.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -192 / U --
Over gap -31.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -33.27% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.2% | U 76.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.4
Zack Littell headshot

Zack Littell
WSH vs ATH | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.99
Strongest Gap Over +16.24%
Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
2.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap +16.24% / Under gap -23.98%
Over +16.24%
DraftKings
2.5
O -157 / U +123
Over gap +11.67% / Under gap -17.60%
Over +11.67%
Model O 72.8% | U 27.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.4
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs STL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.71
Strongest Gap Over +15.72%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +15.72% / Under gap --
Over +15.72%
FanDuel
5.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +15.66% / Under gap --
Over +15.66%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +14.54% / Under gap -21.32%
Over +14.54%
DraftKings
3.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap +11.63% / Under gap -17.68%
Over +11.63%
FanDuel
3.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap +9.62% / Under gap -15.76%
Over +9.62%
FanDuel
3.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap +9.62% / Under gap -15.76%
Over +9.62%
FanDuel
2.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap +3.45% / Under gap --
Over +3.45%
Model O 49.0% | U 50.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs CHC | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.13
Strongest Gap Under +14.67%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -20.66% / Under gap +14.67%
Under +14.67%
FanDuel
5.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -20.35% / Under gap +14.27%
Under +14.27%
FanDuel
5.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -20.35% / Under gap +14.27%
Under +14.27%
BetMGM
5.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -16.24% / Under gap +8.50%
Under +8.50%
FanDuel
8.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -4.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -8.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -12.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -15.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -20.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -24.01% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.8
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs CIN | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 3.69
Strongest Gap Over +12.73%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +12.73% / Under gap --
Over +12.73%
FanDuel
3.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap +12.13% / Under gap --
Over +12.13%
FanDuel
2.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +8.63% / Under gap -14.61%
Over +8.63%
FanDuel
2.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +8.63% / Under gap -14.61%
Over +8.63%
DraftKings
2.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap +5.35% / Under gap -11.41%
Over +5.35%
BetMGM
3.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap +4.45% / Under gap -11.15%
Over +4.45%
Model O 31.6% | U 68.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.5
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.23
Strongest Gap Under +11.97%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -152 / U +119
Over gap -17.95% / Under gap +11.97%
Under +11.97%
FanDuel
6.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -16.98% / Under gap +10.90%
Under +10.90%
BetMGM
7.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap -18.44% / Under gap +10.48%
Under +10.48%
Model O 42.4% | U 57.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.9
Spencer Arrighetti headshot

Spencer Arrighetti
HOU vs BAL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.40
Strongest Gap Under +10.41%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -154 / U +121
Over gap -16.29% / Under gap +10.41%
Under +10.41%
FanDuel
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -15.34% / Under gap +9.36%
Under +9.36%
FanDuel
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -15.34% / Under gap +9.36%
Under +9.36%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -15.66% / Under gap +8.04%
Under +8.04%
FanDuel
8.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -1.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -5.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -10.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +142 / U --
Over gap -10.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -15.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -17.26% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 44.3% | U 55.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.2
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.87
Strongest Gap Under +9.57%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -15.62% / Under gap +9.57%
Under +9.57%
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -16.08% / Under gap +9.15%
Under +9.15%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -14.20% / Under gap +8.14%
Under +8.14%
Model O 36.3% | U 63.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.0
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.39
Strongest Gap Under +9.30%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -147 / U +115
Over gap -15.32% / Under gap +9.30%
Under +9.30%
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -11.95% / Under gap +5.81%
Under +5.81%
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -9.30% / Under gap +2.32%
Under +2.32%
Model O 44.2% | U 55.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.6
Emmet Sheehan headshot

Emmet Sheehan
LAD vs NYY | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.12
Strongest Gap Under +8.65%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -15.43% / Under gap +8.65%
Under +8.65%
FanDuel
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -10.85% / Under gap +4.92%
Under +4.92%
DraftKings
5.5
O -104 / U -123
Over gap -10.85% / Under gap +4.71%
Under +4.71%
Model O 40.1% | U 59.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.7
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.85
Strongest Gap Over +8.18%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap +8.18% / Under gap -14.24%
Over +8.18%
DraftKings
3.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap +7.55% / Under gap -13.58%
Over +7.55%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap +2.50% / Under gap -10.46%
Over +2.50%
Model O 51.3% | U 48.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.5
Shane Bieber headshot

Shane Bieber
TOR vs CWS | 6 books
Play
Adj K 5.05
Strongest Gap Over +4.75%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +4.75% / Under gap --
Over +4.75%
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +3.99% / Under gap --
Over +3.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap +1.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -4.31% / Under gap -1.54%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -7.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -7.46% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.5% | U 83.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.2
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs PHI | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Under +2.93%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -8.80% / Under gap +2.93%
Under +2.93%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -8.80% / Under gap +2.93%
Under +2.93%
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -10.55% / Under gap +2.93%
Under +2.93%
DraftKings
5.5
O +124 / U -159
Over gap -7.57% / Under gap +1.54%
Under +1.54%
FanDuel
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -0.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -3.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -11.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -12.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -14.12% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.1% | U 62.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.2
Dustin May headshot

Dustin May
STL vs AZ | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 3.87
Strongest Gap Under +2.75%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -8.74% / Under gap +2.75%
Under +2.75%
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -8.74% / Under gap +2.75%
Under +2.75%
BetMGM
4.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -8.72% / Under gap +1.60%
Under +1.60%
DraftKings
3.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -6.13% / Under gap +0.18%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +0.15% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap -1.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -4.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -410 / U --
Over gap -9.34% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.0
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs TOR | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.90
Strongest Gap Over +2.73%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +2.73% / Under gap --
Over +2.73%
FanDuel
4.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap +0.81% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -8.04% / Under gap +0.75%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -6.11% / Under gap +0.09%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -4.16% / Under gap -1.76%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -4.16% / Under gap -1.76%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -7.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.6% | U 78.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.7
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs ATL | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.70
Strongest Gap Over +2.58%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +2.58% / Under gap --
Over +2.58%
FanDuel
6.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap +0.63% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +107 / U -137
Over gap +0.42% / Under gap -6.54%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -2.25% / Under gap -3.68%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -3.65% / Under gap -3.28%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -113 / U -122
Over gap -4.32% / Under gap -3.68%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -7.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -8.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -9.05% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.9% | U 76.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.0
Griffin Canning headshot

Griffin Canning
SD vs KC | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.80
Strongest Gap Under +2.56%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -9.85% / Under gap +2.56%
Under +2.56%
DraftKings
3.5
O -137 / U +107
Over gap -6.88% / Under gap +0.76%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -6.70% / Under gap +0.53%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -6.70% / Under gap +0.53%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +0.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap -3.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -9.58% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 50.9% | U 49.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.2
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs HOU | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.37
Strongest Gap Under +2.24%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap -8.27% / Under gap +2.24%
Under +2.24%
FanDuel
6.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +0.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -6.08% / Under gap +0.06%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -6.08% / Under gap +0.06%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -6.58% / Under gap -0.87%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -1.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -9.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -10.21% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.4% | U 56.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.7
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs SEA | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.61
Strongest Gap Under +2.07%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -8.13% / Under gap +2.07%
Under +2.07%
DraftKings
5.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -4.49% / Under gap -1.56%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -3.79% / Under gap -2.99%
No Play
Model O 47.4% | U 52.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.