Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-19 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-19
170 matched props 74 unmatched
Older: 2026-07-18

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 170
Grouped Pitchers 21
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 74
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-18 2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-19 | Raw sportsbook rows: 170 | Grouped pitcher entries: 21 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-19/strikeout_edges_2026-07-19.json
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs HOU | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.43
Strongest Gap Under +26.22%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -32.30% / Under gap +26.22%
Under +26.22%
DraftKings
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -27.90% / Under gap +21.97%
Under +21.97%
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -28.51% / Under gap +21.73%
Under +21.73%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -8.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap -14.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -23.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -28.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -146 / U --
Over gap -32.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -33.88% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.1% | U 73.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.6
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.82
Strongest Gap Under +25.62%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -109 / U -117
Over gap -31.69% / Under gap +25.62%
Under +25.62%
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -31.92% / Under gap +24.99%
Under +24.99%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -30.04% / Under gap +23.98%
Under +23.98%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -30.04% / Under gap +23.98%
Under +23.98%
FanDuel
7.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -12.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -20.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -26.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -34.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -37.13% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.5% | U 79.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.6
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs CLE | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.66
Strongest Gap Under +21.20%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -27.28% / Under gap +21.20%
Under +21.20%
FanDuel
6.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -27.28% / Under gap +21.20%
Under +21.20%
DraftKings
7.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -22.91% / Under gap +16.93%
Under +16.93%
BetMGM
6.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -22.90% / Under gap +15.45%
Under +15.45%
FanDuel
8.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -14.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -20.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +120 / U --
Over gap -22.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -27.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -31.44% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.5% | U 65.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.81
Strongest Gap Under +17.30%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -150 / U +117
Over gap -23.38% / Under gap +17.30%
Under +17.30%
FanDuel
6.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -18.94% / Under gap +12.88%
Under +12.88%
FanDuel
6.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -18.94% / Under gap +12.88%
Under +12.88%
BetMGM
6.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -17.93% / Under gap +11.00%
Under +11.00%
FanDuel
8.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -8.58% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap -14.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -17.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -22.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -24.39% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.6% | U 63.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.9
Casey Mize headshot

Casey Mize
DET vs LAA | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.94
Strongest Gap Under +15.00%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -20.95% / Under gap +15.00%
Under +15.00%
FanDuel
8.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -3.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -8.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -14.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -14.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -21.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -24.05% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.2
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs LAD | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.91
Strongest Gap Under +13.92%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -137 / U +108
Over gap -19.81% / Under gap +13.92%
Under +13.92%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -20.33% / Under gap +13.22%
Under +13.22%
FanDuel
6.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -18.14% / Under gap +12.00%
Under +12.00%
FanDuel
6.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -18.14% / Under gap +12.00%
Under +12.00%
FanDuel
8.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -7.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap -13.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -17.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -22.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -23.92% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.0% | U 62.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.9
Jacob Lopez headshot

Jacob Lopez
ATH vs WSH | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.80
Strongest Gap Over +12.49%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +12.49% / Under gap --
Over +12.49%
FanDuel
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +11.13% / Under gap --
Over +11.13%
FanDuel
4.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +11.12% / Under gap --
Over +11.12%
FanDuel
3.5
O -148 / U +118
Over gap +7.34% / Under gap -12.89%
Over +7.34%
FanDuel
2.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap +2.51% / Under gap --
Over +2.51%
Model O 35.2% | U 64.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.5
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs STL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.69
Strongest Gap Over +11.31%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +11.31% / Under gap --
Over +11.31%
FanDuel
4.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +10.55% / Under gap --
Over +10.55%
DraftKings
4.5
O +128 / U -163
Over gap +4.86% / Under gap -10.70%
Over +4.86%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap +4.70% / Under gap -11.99%
Over +4.70%
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap +4.54% / Under gap -10.53%
Over +4.54%
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap +4.54% / Under gap -10.53%
Over +4.54%
FanDuel
2.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -0.10% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.5% | U 66.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.8
Nathan Eovaldi headshot

Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs ATL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.29
Strongest Gap Under +11.00%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -16.98% / Under gap +11.00%
Under +11.00%
FanDuel
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -16.98% / Under gap +11.00%
Under +11.00%
DraftKings
5.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -15.63% / Under gap +9.68%
Under +9.68%
BetMGM
5.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -12.86% / Under gap +6.08%
Under +6.08%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -1.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap -5.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +148 / U --
Over gap -10.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -11.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -17.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -19.86% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs PIT | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.34
Strongest Gap Under +10.25%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -16.23% / Under gap +10.25%
Under +10.25%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -17.33% / Under gap +10.04%
Under +10.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -14.53% / Under gap +8.47%
Under +8.47%
FanDuel
5.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -14.53% / Under gap +8.47%
Under +8.47%
FanDuel
8.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -0.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -4.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -9.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -11.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -16.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -17.55% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.5% | U 56.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.8
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs BAL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 6.45
Strongest Gap Under +9.64%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -15.63% / Under gap +9.64%
Under +9.64%
FanDuel
8.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -5.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -9.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -12.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -750 / U --
Over gap -15.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -17.89% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.3% | U 54.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.0
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs TEX | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.01
Strongest Gap Over +8.43%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +8.43% / Under gap --
Over +8.43%
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +8.15% / Under gap --
Over +8.15%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +3.77% / Under gap -9.91%
Over +3.77%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +3.77% / Under gap -9.91%
Over +3.77%
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -121
Over gap +2.55% / Under gap -8.52%
Over +2.55%
FanDuel
3.5
O -240 / U --
Over gap -0.77% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -1.79% / Under gap -4.99%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -3.83% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.7% | U 74.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.8
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs SD | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.39
Strongest Gap Under +7.71%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -135 / U +106
Over gap -13.70% / Under gap +7.71%
Under +7.71%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -9.74% / Under gap +3.64%
Under +3.64%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -9.74% / Under gap +3.64%
Under +3.64%
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -8.63% / Under gap +1.70%
Under +1.70%
FanDuel
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -1.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -4.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -11.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -13.38% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.8% | U 56.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.6
Hunter Greene headshot

Hunter Greene
CIN vs COL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 6.43
Strongest Gap Under +6.22%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -12.21% / Under gap +6.22%
Under +6.22%
FanDuel
8.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -8.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -13.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -19.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -196 / U --
Over gap -21.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -22.53% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 83.1
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs TB | 8 books
Play
Adj K 5.11
Strongest Gap Over +4.79%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +4.79% / Under gap --
Over +4.79%
FanDuel
5.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap +2.67% / Under gap --
Over +2.67%
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -1.62% / Under gap -4.30%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -1.62% / Under gap -4.30%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -4.07% / Under gap -2.01%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +135 / U -185
Over gap -2.57% / Under gap -4.89%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -5.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -6.87% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.0% | U 73.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.3
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs AZ | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.10
Strongest Gap Under +4.40%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -11.51% / Under gap +4.40%
Under +4.40%
FanDuel
3.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -7.37% / Under gap +1.49%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -7.37% / Under gap +1.49%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -6.59% / Under gap +0.61%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -1.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap -4.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -11.90% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.3% | U 62.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.0
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs CHC | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.77
Strongest Gap Over +3.27%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +3.27% / Under gap --
Over +3.27%
FanDuel
5.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap +0.98% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -7.44% / Under gap -0.01%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap -1.47%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap -1.47%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -117 / U -109
Over gap -3.91% / Under gap -2.16%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -8.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -8.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.5% | U 77.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.5
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SF vs SEA | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.44
Strongest Gap Over +2.64%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +2.64% / Under gap --
Over +2.64%
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +0.27% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -104 / U -123
Over gap -6.04% / Under gap -0.10%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -4.56% / Under gap -1.46%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -4.56% / Under gap -1.46%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -2.68% / Under gap -4.94%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -8.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap -9.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -10.59% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.8% | U 79.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.8
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs MIN | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.27
Strongest Gap Under +2.04%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -8.10% / Under gap +2.04%
Under +2.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -7.60% / Under gap +1.46%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -7.60% / Under gap +1.46%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +0.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -2.06% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -5.22% / Under gap -2.40%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -10.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -12.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -12.51% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.4% | U 57.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.5
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs SF | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 6.39
Strongest Gap Under +1.99%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -8.09% / Under gap +1.99%
Under +1.99%
FanDuel
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -8.09% / Under gap +1.99%
Under +1.99%
DraftKings
6.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap -7.17% / Under gap +1.14%
No Play
FanDuel
8.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +1.06% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -5.48% / Under gap -1.97%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -2.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -12.58% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -12.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -14.43% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 44.5% | U 55.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 71.9
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs CIN | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.25
Strongest Gap Over +1.79%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +1.79% / Under gap --
Over +1.79%
FanDuel
5.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -0.61% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +132 / U -169
Over gap -1.73% / Under gap -4.20%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -2.11% / Under gap -5.01%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -3.68% / Under gap -2.31%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -3.27% / Under gap -2.61%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -7.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -8.47% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.1% | U 83.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.