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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-30 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-30
34 matched props 14 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-31 Older: 2026-07-29

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 34
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 14
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-30 | Raw sportsbook rows: 34 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-30/strikeout_edges_2026-07-30.json
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs NYY | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.31
Strongest Gap Under +36.92%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -42.90% / Under gap +36.92%
Under +36.92%
DraftKings
7.5
O +113 / U -146
Over gap -37.45% / Under gap +31.15%
Under +31.15%
BetMGM
7.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -37.01% / Under gap +29.72%
Under +29.72%
Model O 16.8% | U 83.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.4
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.65
Strongest Gap Under +23.04%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -171 / U +127
Over gap -30.19% / Under gap +23.04%
Under +23.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -28.33% / Under gap +22.45%
Under +22.45%
BetMGM
6.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -27.82% / Under gap +20.71%
Under +20.71%
Model O 32.9% | U 67.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.7
Eury Pérez headshot

Eury Pérez
MIA vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.59
Strongest Gap Under +19.47%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -25.64% / Under gap +19.47%
Under +19.47%
FanDuel
5.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -24.91% / Under gap +18.99%
Under +18.99%
BetMGM
6.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -24.24% / Under gap +17.54%
Under +17.54%
Model O 32.0% | U 68.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.8
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.53
Strongest Gap Under +10.12%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +123 / U -157
Over gap -16.05% / Under gap +10.12%
Under +10.12%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -15.70% / Under gap +8.71%
Under +8.71%
FanDuel
4.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap -13.95% / Under gap +7.97%
Under +7.97%
Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.7
Jp Sears headshot

Jp Sears
SD vs SF | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.22
Strongest Gap Over +9.23%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +9.23% / Under gap -15.15%
Over +9.23%
DraftKings
3.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap +6.56% / Under gap -12.59%
Over +6.56%
Model O 58.2% | U 41.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.6
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs MIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.30
Strongest Gap Under +6.80%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -12.73% / Under gap +6.80%
Under +6.80%
DraftKings
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -13.34% / Under gap +6.56%
Under +6.56%
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -10.16% / Under gap +3.23%
Under +3.23%
Model O 42.2% | U 57.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.1
Javier Assad headshot

Javier Assad
CHC vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.53
Strongest Gap Over +6.02%
Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
2.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +6.02% / Under gap -12.00%
Over +6.02%
BetMGM
2.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +5.70% / Under gap -13.32%
Over +5.70%
DraftKings
2.5
O -163 / U +130
Over gap +3.72% / Under gap -9.18%
Over +3.72%
Model O 65.7% | U 34.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SF vs SD | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.23
Strongest Gap Over +5.83%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -124
Over gap +5.83% / Under gap -12.41%
Over +5.83%
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -2.95% / Under gap -4.67%
No Play
Model O 57.0% | U 43.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.2
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs WSH | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.88
Strongest Gap Over +2.25%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +2.25% / Under gap -8.27%
Over +2.25%
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +1.75% / Under gap -9.20%
Over +1.75%
DraftKings
4.5
O -102 / U -124
Over gap +1.25% / Under gap -7.11%
No Play
Model O 51.7% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.2
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs KC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.52
Strongest Gap No Play +1.15%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap +1.15% / Under gap -7.23%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -164 / U +124
Over gap +0.86% / Under gap -7.62%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap +0.72% / Under gap -7.42%
No Play
Model O 63.0% | U 37.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.3
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.05
Strongest Gap No Play +0.00%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -5.99% / Under gap +0.00%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +126 / U -160
Over gap -5.19% / Under gap -0.60%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -6.39% / Under gap -0.60%
No Play
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.4
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.90
Strongest Gap No Play -1.42%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -1.42% / Under gap -5.56%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -4.07% / Under gap -2.07%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -2.88% / Under gap -3.05%
No Play
Model O 52.1% | U 47.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 71.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.