Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-29 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-29

56 matched props 23 unmatched

Newer: 2026-07-30 Older: 2026-07-28

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 56

Grouped Pitchers 20

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 23

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-29 | Raw sportsbook rows: 56 | Grouped pitcher entries: 20 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-29/strikeout_edges_2026-07-29.json

Jesús Luzardo

PHI vs MIA | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.92

Strongest Gap Under +21.33%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O -118 / U -109

Over gap -27.61% / Under gap +21.33%

Under +21.33%

FanDuel

7.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap -26.53% / Under gap +20.43%

Under +20.43%

Model O 26.5% | U 73.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.0

Cam Schlittler

NYY vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.65

Strongest Gap Under +18.40%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap -24.35% / Under gap +18.40%

Under +18.40%

DraftKings

7.5

O +113 / U -145

Over gap -23.68% / Under gap +17.55%

Under +17.55%

BetMGM

7.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -23.24% / Under gap +15.95%

Under +15.95%

Model O 23.3% | U 76.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.8

Tarik Skubal

DET vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.93

Strongest Gap Under +16.14%

Best Line 8.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

8.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -22.20% / Under gap +16.14%

Under +16.14%

FanDuel

8.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -21.20% / Under gap +15.18%

Under +15.18%

BetMGM

8.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -19.32% / Under gap +11.70%

Under +11.70%

Model O 28.3% | U 71.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 81.7

Zack Littell

WSH vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.95

Strongest Gap Over +15.68%

Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

2.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap +15.68% / Under gap -21.70%

Over +15.68%

BetMGM

2.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap +15.68% / Under gap -23.42%

Over +15.68%

DraftKings

2.5

O -155 / U +117

Over gap +11.42% / Under gap -18.28%

Over +11.42%

Model O 72.2% | U 27.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.7

Dustin May

STL vs CHC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.30

Strongest Gap Under +13.92%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -164 / U +128

Over gap -19.90% / Under gap +13.92%

Under +13.92%

BetMGM

4.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -18.56% / Under gap +11.27%

Under +11.27%

DraftKings

5.5

O +129 / U -164

Over gap -16.13% / Under gap +10.34%

Under +10.34%

Model O 42.2% | U 57.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.6

Chris Sale

ATL vs NYM | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.36

Strongest Gap Under +11.90%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -18.04% / Under gap +11.90%

Under +11.90%

DraftKings

7.5

O +110 / U -141

Over gap -15.66% / Under gap +9.53%

Under +9.53%

BetMGM

7.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -14.55% / Under gap +7.26%

Under +7.26%

Model O 32.0% | U 68.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.8

Joey Cantillo

CLE vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.24

Strongest Gap Under +11.22%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -18.84% / Under gap +11.22%

Under +11.22%

DraftKings

6.5

O +118 / U -151

Over gap -17.09% / Under gap +11.06%

Under +11.06%

FanDuel

6.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap -16.27% / Under gap +10.28%

Under +10.28%

Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.7

Davis Martin

CWS vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.39

Strongest Gap Under +10.31%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -17.60% / Under gap +10.31%

Under +10.31%

FanDuel

4.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap -15.60% / Under gap +9.52%

Under +9.52%

DraftKings

5.5

O +133 / U -167

Over gap -14.01% / Under gap +8.54%

Under +8.54%

Model O 28.9% | U 71.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.4

Emerson Hancock

SEA vs LAD | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 3.80

Strongest Gap Under +7.79%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +111 / U -142

Over gap -13.86% / Under gap +7.79%

Under +7.79%

FanDuel

4.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -13.20% / Under gap +7.12%

Under +7.12%

Model O 33.5% | U 66.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 17.0

Joe Ryan

MIN vs KC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.98

Strongest Gap Under +7.55%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -14.53% / Under gap +7.55%

Under +7.55%

DraftKings

6.5

O +101 / U -129

Over gap -10.79% / Under gap +4.71%

Under +4.71%

FanDuel

6.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -9.58% / Under gap +3.41%

Under +3.41%

Model O 39.0% | U 61.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.9

Trevor Rogers

BAL vs DET | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.61

Strongest Gap Under +7.39%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +138 / U -152

Over gap -9.73% / Under gap +7.39%

Under +7.39%

FanDuel

4.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -9.10% / Under gap +3.08%

Under +3.08%

BetMGM

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -6.07% / Under gap -0.91%

No Play

Model O 32.3% | U 67.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.4

Eduardo Rodriguez

AZ vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.48

Strongest Gap Under +5.95%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -13.06% / Under gap +5.95%

Under +5.95%

FanDuel

4.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -11.25% / Under gap +5.23%

Under +5.23%

DraftKings

4.5

O -123 / U -106

Over gap -9.89% / Under gap +3.27%

Under +3.27%

Model O 45.3% | U 54.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.7

Jacob Lopez

ATH vs BOS | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.95

Strongest Gap Over +4.06%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap +4.06% / Under gap -11.17%

Over +4.06%

FanDuel

4.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap +1.86% / Under gap -7.79%

Over +1.86%

DraftKings

4.5

O -114 / U -111

Over gap -0.43% / Under gap -5.45%

No Play

Model O 52.8% | U 47.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.2

Matthew Boyd

CHC vs STL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.00

Strongest Gap Over +3.61%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap +3.61% / Under gap -11.06%

Over +3.61%

FanDuel

4.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap +2.15% / Under gap -8.16%

Over +2.15%

DraftKings

4.5

O -111 / U -118

Over gap +1.00% / Under gap -7.74%

No Play

Model O 53.6% | U 46.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.1

Eric Lauer

LAD vs SEA | 2 books

Lean

Adj K 4.41

Strongest Gap Over +1.72%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +136 / U -172

Over gap +1.72% / Under gap -7.33%

Over +1.72%

DraftKings

4.5

O +121 / U -151

Over gap -1.16% / Under gap -4.25%

No Play

Model O 44.1% | U 55.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.8

Ryan Gusto

MIA vs PHI | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 4.53

Strongest Gap No Play +1.26%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +123 / U -157

Over gap +1.26% / Under gap -7.19%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -1.98% / Under gap -4.08%

No Play

Model O 46.1% | U 53.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.9

MacKenzie Gore

TEX vs TB | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.65

Strongest Gap No Play +0.84%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap +0.84% / Under gap -6.69%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -145

Over gap -0.77% / Under gap -7.19%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +103 / U -134

Over gap -1.25% / Under gap -5.27%

No Play

Model O 48.0% | U 52.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.2

Brady Singer

CIN vs CLE | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.52

Strongest Gap No Play +0.80%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -115 / U -114

Over gap -7.56% / Under gap +0.80%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -4.57% / Under gap -1.49%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -5.29% / Under gap -1.49%

No Play

Model O 45.9% | U 54.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.9

Sean Manaea

NYM vs ATL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.08

Strongest Gap No Play -0.16%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +152 / U -163

Over gap -0.16% / Under gap -1.50%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -6.99% / Under gap -0.30%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap -4.52% / Under gap -1.56%

No Play

Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.1

Logan Webb

SF vs MIL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.62

Strongest Gap No Play -0.97%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -0.97% / Under gap -5.20%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -1.21% / Under gap -5.90%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +100 / U -129

Over gap -2.43% / Under gap -3.90%

No Play

Model O 47.6% | U 52.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.