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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-06 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-06
42 matched props 18 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-07 Older: 2026-08-05

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 42
Grouped Pitchers 14
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 18
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-06 | Raw sportsbook rows: 42 | Grouped pitcher entries: 14 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-06/strikeout_edges_2026-08-06.json
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.02
Strongest Gap Under +18.17%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -24.87% / Under gap +18.17%
Under +18.17%
DraftKings
5.5
O +116 / U -151
Over gap -22.95% / Under gap +16.49%
Under +16.49%
FanDuel
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -21.70% / Under gap +15.71%
Under +15.71%
Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.81
Strongest Gap Under +18.11%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -25.40% / Under gap +18.11%
Under +18.11%
FanDuel
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -23.97% / Under gap +17.89%
Under +17.89%
DraftKings
6.5
O +135 / U -150
Over gap -19.53% / Under gap +16.98%
Under +16.98%
Model O 35.4% | U 64.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.1
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.64
Strongest Gap Under +16.74%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -129 / U -102
Over gap -23.57% / Under gap +16.74%
Under +16.74%
FanDuel
5.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -20.29% / Under gap +14.19%
Under +14.19%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -18.46% / Under gap +11.68%
Under +11.68%
Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.1
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.13
Strongest Gap Under +16.46%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -153 / U +119
Over gap -22.59% / Under gap +16.46%
Under +16.46%
FanDuel
3.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -18.26% / Under gap +12.12%
Under +12.12%
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -16.67% / Under gap +9.74%
Under +9.74%
Model O 37.9% | U 62.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.8
Dylan Cease headshot

Dylan Cease
TOR vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.50
Strongest Gap Under +13.91%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -20.84% / Under gap +13.91%
Under +13.91%
DraftKings
7.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -19.78% / Under gap +13.68%
Under +13.68%
FanDuel
7.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -16.79% / Under gap +10.73%
Under +10.73%
Model O 33.7% | U 66.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.9
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.76
Strongest Gap Over +13.42%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +13.42% / Under gap -19.52%
Over +13.42%
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +11.92% / Under gap -18.85%
Over +11.92%
DraftKings
3.5
O -133 / U +101
Over gap +9.39% / Under gap -16.22%
Over +9.39%
Model O 66.5% | U 33.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.13
Strongest Gap Under +12.57%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +111 / U -140
Over gap -18.29% / Under gap +12.57%
Under +12.57%
BetMGM
7.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -19.68% / Under gap +12.57%
Under +12.57%
FanDuel
7.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -16.77% / Under gap +10.90%
Under +10.90%
Model O 29.1% | U 70.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.7
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs ATL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.19
Strongest Gap Under +9.68%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -17.42% / Under gap +9.68%
Under +9.68%
DraftKings
3.5
O -113 / U -114
Over gap -13.95% / Under gap +7.63%
Under +7.63%
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -13.51% / Under gap +7.41%
Under +7.41%
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 19.4
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.69
Strongest Gap Under +8.01%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -171 / U +132
Over gap -14.21% / Under gap +8.01%
Under +8.01%
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -12.65% / Under gap +6.47%
Under +6.47%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -11.11% / Under gap +3.49%
Under +3.49%
Model O 48.9% | U 51.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.2
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs MIN | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.96
Strongest Gap Over +3.00%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +3.00% / Under gap -9.14%
Over +3.00%
DraftKings
4.5
O -104 / U -121
Over gap +2.02% / Under gap -7.75%
Over +2.02%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +1.78% / Under gap -8.56%
Over +1.78%
Model O 53.0% | U 47.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.6
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs SEA | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.13
Strongest Gap No Play +0.56%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -162 / U +128
Over gap -6.25% / Under gap +0.56%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -5.96% / Under gap -1.03%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -147 / U +117
Over gap -3.93% / Under gap -1.66%
No Play
Model O 55.6% | U 44.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.0
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.43
Strongest Gap No Play +0.01%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -6.79% / Under gap +0.01%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -132
Over gap -3.65% / Under gap -1.33%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -4.11% / Under gap -1.88%
No Play
Model O 44.4% | U 55.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.4
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs KC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.28
Strongest Gap No Play -1.40%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -1.40% / Under gap -4.68%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -1.55% / Under gap -5.74%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -165 / U +128
Over gap -3.03% / Under gap -3.09%
No Play
Model O 59.2% | U 40.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.7
Miles Mikolas headshot

Miles Mikolas
WSH vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.27
Strongest Gap No Play -1.47%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +137 / U -176
Over gap -1.47% / Under gap -4.49%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +124 / U -156
Over gap -3.92% / Under gap -1.66%
No Play
BetMGM
2.5
O -175 / U +130
Over gap -2.56% / Under gap -4.56%
No Play
Model O 40.7% | U 59.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.