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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-05 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-05
153 matched props 52 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-06 Older: 2026-08-04

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 153
Grouped Pitchers 21
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 52
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-05 | Raw sportsbook rows: 153 | Grouped pitcher entries: 21 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-05/strikeout_edges_2026-08-05.json
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs BOS | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 3.93
Strongest Gap Under +30.34%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -37.96% / Under gap +30.34%
Under +30.34%
DraftKings
6.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap -33.34% / Under gap +27.31%
Under +27.31%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -32.92% / Under gap +26.84%
Under +26.84%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -32.92% / Under gap +26.84%
Under +26.84%
FanDuel
8.5
O +460 / U --
Over gap -14.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -23.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -25.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -39.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -44.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -45.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.0% | U 78.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.1
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs NYY | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.17
Strongest Gap Under +21.83%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -28.61% / Under gap +21.83%
Under +21.83%
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -25.01% / Under gap +19.06%
Under +19.06%
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -25.01% / Under gap +19.06%
Under +19.06%
DraftKings
4.5
O +109 / U -142
Over gap -25.24% / Under gap +18.71%
Under +18.71%
FanDuel
6.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap -11.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -18.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -27.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -31.45% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.6% | U 77.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.5
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs MIL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.70
Strongest Gap Under +19.44%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -25.52% / Under gap +19.44%
Under +19.44%
FanDuel
6.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -25.52% / Under gap +19.44%
Under +19.44%
BetMGM
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -25.67% / Under gap +18.38%
Under +18.38%
DraftKings
6.5
O -139 / U +112
Over gap -23.05% / Under gap +17.72%
Under +17.72%
FanDuel
8.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -12.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -19.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +128 / U --
Over gap -20.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -26.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -29.05% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.1% | U 64.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 75.9
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs PIT | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.04
Strongest Gap Under +15.64%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -21.72% / Under gap +15.64%
Under +15.64%
FanDuel
8.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -5.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -9.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +132 / U --
Over gap -17.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -21.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -25.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.9% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.2
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.22
Strongest Gap Over +14.08%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +14.08% / Under gap --
Over +14.08%
FanDuel
6.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap +14.06% / Under gap --
Over +14.06%
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap +12.41% / Under gap -18.30%
Over +12.41%
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap +12.41% / Under gap -18.30%
Over +12.41%
DraftKings
5.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap +11.25% / Under gap -17.13%
Over +11.25%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +8.28% / Under gap -15.27%
Over +8.28%
FanDuel
4.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap +4.54% / Under gap --
Over +4.54%
FanDuel
3.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -0.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -3.14% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.2% | U 69.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.4
Eury Pérez headshot

Eury Pérez
MIA vs ATL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.55
Strongest Gap Under +13.07%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -19.85% / Under gap +13.07%
Under +13.07%
DraftKings
5.5
O +106 / U -134
Over gap -17.17% / Under gap +11.37%
Under +11.37%
FanDuel
5.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -17.17% / Under gap +11.00%
Under +11.00%
Model O 31.4% | U 68.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.6
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs TB | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 3.38
Strongest Gap Over +11.66%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +11.66% / Under gap --
Over +11.66%
FanDuel
4.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +10.06% / Under gap --
Over +10.06%
FanDuel
2.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +9.60% / Under gap -15.70%
Over +9.60%
FanDuel
2.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +9.60% / Under gap -15.70%
Over +9.60%
BetMGM
2.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +9.60% / Under gap -16.58%
Over +9.60%
DraftKings
2.5
O -117 / U -107
Over gap +9.17% / Under gap -14.78%
Over +9.17%
Model O 42.9% | U 57.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.7
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs LAA | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap Under +11.37%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -132 / U +103
Over gap -17.53% / Under gap +11.37%
Under +11.37%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -14.12% / Under gap +8.02%
Under +8.02%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -14.12% / Under gap +8.02%
Under +8.02%
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -14.12% / Under gap +7.14%
Under +7.14%
FanDuel
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -1.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap -6.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -9.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -13.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -18.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -20.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.4% | U 60.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.8
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs DET | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.42
Strongest Gap Under +10.78%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +106 / U -138
Over gap -17.30% / Under gap +10.78%
Under +10.78%
FanDuel
6.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -15.06% / Under gap +9.08%
Under +9.08%
Model O 31.2% | U 68.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.4
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs STL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.20
Strongest Gap Over +8.23%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +8.23% / Under gap --
Over +8.23%
FanDuel
5.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap +7.56% / Under gap --
Over +7.56%
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +6.61% / Under gap -14.06%
Over +6.61%
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -123
Over gap +5.39% / Under gap -11.77%
Over +5.39%
FanDuel
4.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap +5.15% / Under gap -11.16%
Over +5.15%
FanDuel
4.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap +5.15% / Under gap -11.16%
Over +5.15%
FanDuel
3.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -2.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -3.96% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.2% | U 71.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.9
Jacob Lopez headshot

Jacob Lopez
ATH vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.77
Strongest Gap Under +6.91%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -12.86% / Under gap +6.91%
Under +6.91%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -12.86% / Under gap +6.91%
Under +6.91%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -12.86% / Under gap +6.91%
Under +6.91%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -14.02% / Under gap +6.91%
Under +6.91%
FanDuel
7.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -4.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -9.25% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -14.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -18.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -19.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.8% | U 65.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.6
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs MIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.59
Strongest Gap Under +6.77%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +129 / U -158
Over gap -11.68% / Under gap +6.77%
Under +6.77%
FanDuel
4.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -11.24% / Under gap +5.29%
Under +5.29%
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -10.89% / Under gap +4.83%
Under +4.83%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -10.36% / Under gap +2.91%
Under +2.91%
FanDuel
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -0.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -3.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap -8.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -12.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -14.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.0% | U 68.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.6
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs NYM | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.17
Strongest Gap Over +6.56%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +790 / U --
Over gap +6.56% / Under gap --
Over +6.56%
FanDuel
6.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +6.09% / Under gap --
Over +6.09%
FanDuel
5.5
O +172 / U --
Over gap +4.13% / Under gap --
Over +4.13%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U +100
Over gap +1.22% / Under gap -6.17%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U --
Over gap +1.22% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap +0.03% / Under gap -6.17%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -0.35% / Under gap -7.39%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -325 / U --
Over gap -4.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -6.39% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.8% | U 82.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.8
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs LAD | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.15
Strongest Gap Over +5.81%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +5.81% / Under gap --
Over +5.81%
FanDuel
5.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap +4.36% / Under gap --
Over +4.36%
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +0.31% / Under gap -6.37%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap +0.31% / Under gap -6.37%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -1.76% / Under gap -4.41%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -4.13% / Under gap -3.49%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -6.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -6.55% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.6% | U 72.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.7
Bryce Elder headshot

Bryce Elder
ATL vs MIA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.11
Strongest Gap Over +5.39%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +5.39% / Under gap --
Over +5.39%
FanDuel
6.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +4.28% / Under gap --
Over +4.28%
FanDuel
5.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap +1.22% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +0.73% / Under gap -7.66%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -2.35% / Under gap -3.82%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -2.35% / Under gap -3.82%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -2.70% / Under gap -3.36%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -6.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -7.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.2% | U 82.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0
Eric Lauer headshot

Eric Lauer
LAD vs CHC | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.96
Strongest Gap Over +4.29%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap +4.29% / Under gap --
Over +4.29%
FanDuel
4.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +3.01% / Under gap --
Over +3.01%
FanDuel
3.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +1.89% / Under gap -7.94%
Over +1.89%
FanDuel
3.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +1.89% / Under gap -7.94%
Over +1.89%
DraftKings
3.5
O -109 / U -114
Over gap +1.66% / Under gap -7.08%
Over +1.66%
BetMGM
3.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +0.32% / Under gap -7.30%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -4.40% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.5% | U 77.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.3
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs COL | 7 books
Play
Adj K 3.89
Strongest Gap Over +3.92%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +3.92% / Under gap --
Over +3.92%
FanDuel
4.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +1.78% / Under gap --
Over +1.78%
FanDuel
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -0.49% / Under gap -5.61%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -0.49% / Under gap -5.61%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -0.93% / Under gap -5.17%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -0.93% / Under gap -6.05%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -5.93% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.5% | U 78.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.1
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs CWS | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.20
Strongest Gap Under +3.10%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -9.88% / Under gap +3.10%
Under +3.10%
DraftKings
5.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -7.20% / Under gap +1.21%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +0.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -5.39% / Under gap -0.69%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -5.39% / Under gap -0.69%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -2.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -10.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -560 / U --
Over gap -12.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -13.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.9
Jake Irvin headshot

Jake Irvin
WSH vs PHI | 5 books
Lean
Adj K 4.11
Strongest Gap Over +2.72%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +2.72% / Under gap --
Over +2.72%
FanDuel
5.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +0.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap -1.45%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +144 / U --
Over gap -2.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -8.39% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 14.5% | U 85.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.5
Dean Kremer headshot

Dean Kremer
MIN vs KC | 5 books
No Play
Adj K 4.51
Strongest Gap No Play +0.74%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -6.84% / Under gap +0.74%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -0.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -3.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -10.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -11.53% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.3
Jameson Taillon headshot

Jameson Taillon
TOR vs HOU | 5 books
No Play
Adj K 4.20
Strongest Gap No Play -0.12%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap -0.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -2.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +122 / U --
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -560 / U --
Over gap -9.32% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -9.82% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.5% | U 84.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.