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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-07 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-07
39 matched props 30 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-08 Older: 2026-08-06

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 39
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 30
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-07 | Raw sportsbook rows: 39 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-07/strikeout_edges_2026-08-07.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.80
Strongest Gap Under +33.10%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -39.18% / Under gap +33.10%
Under +33.10%
DraftKings
5.5
O -143 / U +109
Over gap -38.68% / Under gap +31.98%
Under +31.98%
BetMGM
6.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -34.25% / Under gap +27.26%
Under +27.26%
Model O 20.2% | U 79.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.7
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs SEA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.13
Strongest Gap Under +26.00%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -31.92% / Under gap +26.00%
Under +26.00%
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -29.57% / Under gap +22.64%
Under +22.64%
DraftKings
5.5
O -109 / U -120
Over gap -27.17% / Under gap +20.47%
Under +20.47%
Model O 25.0% | U 75.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.4
Nathan Eovaldi headshot

Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs BAL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.68
Strongest Gap Under +19.72%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -25.80% / Under gap +19.72%
Under +19.72%
DraftKings
6.5
O -151 / U +117
Over gap -25.33% / Under gap +19.09%
Under +19.09%
BetMGM
7.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap -25.15% / Under gap +17.19%
Under +17.19%
Model O 34.8% | U 65.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.0
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.34
Strongest Gap Under +13.44%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -20.14% / Under gap +13.44%
Under +13.44%
FanDuel
3.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -18.51% / Under gap +12.43%
Under +12.43%
DraftKings
3.5
O -145 / U +113
Over gap -17.06% / Under gap +10.93%
Under +10.93%
Model O 42.1% | U 57.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.6
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.59
Strongest Gap Over +7.51%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap +7.51% / Under gap -13.53%
Over +7.51%
DraftKings
3.5
O -140 / U +108
Over gap +5.70% / Under gap -12.11%
Over +5.70%
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap +5.70% / Under gap -12.81%
Over +5.70%
Model O 64.0% | U 36.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.2
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.81
Strongest Gap Over +6.67%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +125 / U -157
Over gap +6.67% / Under gap -12.20%
Over +6.67%
FanDuel
3.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +3.94% / Under gap -9.79%
Over +3.94%
BetMGM
3.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +2.33% / Under gap -9.44%
Over +2.33%
Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.2
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.90
Strongest Gap Over +5.69%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +5.69% / Under gap -12.68%
Over +5.69%
FanDuel
5.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap +2.71% / Under gap -8.89%
Over +2.71%
DraftKings
5.5
O -181 / U +124
Over gap -0.16% / Under gap -8.89%
No Play
Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.4
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs TEX | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.87
Strongest Gap Under +5.37%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -12.48% / Under gap +5.37%
Under +5.37%
DraftKings
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -10.87% / Under gap +5.02%
Under +5.02%
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -8.34% / Under gap +2.46%
Under +2.46%
Model O 36.3% | U 63.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.7
Carmen Mlodzinski headshot

Carmen Mlodzinski
PIT vs NYM | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.21
Strongest Gap No Play +0.98%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +116 / U -147
Over gap -6.79% / Under gap +0.98%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -8.11% / Under gap +0.49%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -4.35% / Under gap -1.63%
No Play
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 16.1
Max Fried headshot

Max Fried
NYY vs ATL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.66
Strongest Gap No Play -0.39%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -0.39% / Under gap -5.78%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +105 / U -134
Over gap -0.63% / Under gap -5.41%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -3.07% / Under gap -3.71%
No Play
Model O 48.1% | U 51.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.4
Ronel Blanco headshot

Ronel Blanco
HOU vs SD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap No Play -0.67%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -0.67% / Under gap -5.43%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -116 / U -107
Over gap -1.32% / Under gap -4.07%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -3.18% / Under gap -3.60%
No Play
Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.0
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs MIL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.75
Strongest Gap No Play -0.91%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -6.83% / Under gap -0.91%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -109 / U -117
Over gap -2.46% / Under gap -3.61%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -2.92% / Under gap -3.18%
No Play
Model O 49.7% | U 50.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.2
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs TB | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.25
Strongest Gap No Play -1.12%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -159 / U +123
Over gap -5.11% / Under gap -1.12%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -5.06%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -3.72% / Under gap -2.15%
No Play
Model O 56.3% | U 43.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.