Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-08 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-08

50 matched props 32 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-09 Older: 2026-08-07

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 50

Grouped Pitchers 17

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 32

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-08 | Raw sportsbook rows: 50 | Grouped pitcher entries: 17 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-08/strikeout_edges_2026-08-08.json

Gavin Williams

CLE vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.35

Strongest Gap Under +30.20%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -36.34% / Under gap +30.20%

Under +30.20%

DraftKings

7.5

O -128 / U -102

Over gap -36.34% / Under gap +29.70%

Under +29.70%

BetMGM

7.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap -36.72% / Under gap +28.98%

Under +28.98%

Model O 19.8% | U 80.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.7

Matthew Liberatore

STL vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.06

Strongest Gap Under +18.80%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +104 / U -134

Over gap -25.08% / Under gap +18.80%

Under +18.80%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -22.36% / Under gap +16.38%

Under +16.38%

BetMGM

4.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -22.70% / Under gap +15.41%

Under +15.41%

Model O 23.9% | U 76.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.9

Chris Sale

ATL vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.53

Strongest Gap Under +18.74%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O -148 / U +112

Over gap -25.59% / Under gap +18.74%

Under +18.74%

FanDuel

7.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -22.05% / Under gap +15.91%

Under +15.91%

BetMGM

8.5

O +125 / U -165

Over gap -20.58% / Under gap +13.88%

Under +13.88%

Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.8

Jacob deGrom

TEX vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.82

Strongest Gap Under +17.25%

Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

7.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -24.70% / Under gap +17.25%

Under +17.25%

DraftKings

7.5

O +117 / U -149

Over gap -20.78% / Under gap +14.86%

Under +14.86%

FanDuel

7.5

O +126 / U -162

Over gap -18.95% / Under gap +12.87%

Under +12.87%

Model O 25.3% | U 74.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.2

Taj Bradley

MIN vs MIL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.06

Strongest Gap Under +16.54%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap -22.62% / Under gap +16.54%

Under +16.54%

DraftKings

5.5

O -168 / U +119

Over gap -23.48% / Under gap +15.13%

Under +15.13%

BetMGM

6.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -21.28% / Under gap +13.66%

Under +13.66%

Model O 39.2% | U 60.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.1

Landen Roupp

SF vs DET | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.60

Strongest Gap Under +9.53%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -16.64% / Under gap +9.53%

Under +9.53%

FanDuel

4.5

O -154 / U +122

Over gap -13.37% / Under gap +7.69%

Under +7.69%

DraftKings

4.5

O -178 / U +119

Over gap -16.77% / Under gap +7.08%

Under +7.08%

Model O 32.1% | U 67.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.4

Aaron Nola

PHI vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.34

Strongest Gap Over +9.38%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +103 / U -131

Over gap +9.38% / Under gap -15.35%

Over +9.38%

FanDuel

4.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap +9.14% / Under gap -15.16%

Over +9.14%

BetMGM

4.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap +6.26% / Under gap -13.19%

Over +6.26%

Model O 58.6% | U 41.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.3

Seth Lugo

KC vs CHC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.00

Strongest Gap Over +9.06%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap +9.06% / Under gap -15.14%

Over +9.06%

DraftKings

3.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap +7.86% / Under gap -13.94%

Over +7.86%

BetMGM

4.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +7.10% / Under gap -14.39%

Over +7.10%

Model O 69.7% | U 30.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.1

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ vs LAD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.54

Strongest Gap Over +8.73%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap +8.73% / Under gap -15.66%

Over +8.73%

DraftKings

3.5

O -127 / U -101

Over gap +7.33% / Under gap -13.53%

Over +7.33%

FanDuel

3.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap +7.14% / Under gap -13.28%

Over +7.14%

Model O 63.3% | U 36.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.4

Jackson Jobe

DET vs SF | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.75

Strongest Gap Under +6.51%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -169 / U +130

Over gap -12.82% / Under gap +6.51%

Under +6.51%

BetMGM

4.5

O +125 / U -165

Over gap -11.79% / Under gap +5.09%

Under +5.09%

FanDuel

3.5

O -150 / U +118

Over gap -9.99% / Under gap +4.12%

Under +4.12%

Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.5

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD vs AZ | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.37

Strongest Gap Under +3.72%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -10.65% / Under gap +3.72%

Under +3.72%

FanDuel

5.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -7.56% / Under gap +1.55%

Under +1.55%

DraftKings

5.5

O -101 / U -126

Over gap -6.35% / Under gap +0.35%

No Play

Model O 43.9% | U 56.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.3

Max Scherzer

TOR vs PHI | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 3.70

Strongest Gap Under +2.61%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -140 / U +107

Over gap -9.25% / Under gap +2.61%

Under +2.61%

BetMGM

3.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -9.25% / Under gap +2.14%

Under +2.14%

FanDuel

3.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -7.82% / Under gap +1.90%

Under +1.90%

Model O 49.1% | U 50.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.1

Sandy Alcantara

MIA vs LAA | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.48

Strongest Gap Under +2.55%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -8.60% / Under gap +2.55%

Under +2.55%

DraftKings

5.5

O -115 / U -113

Over gap -7.96% / Under gap +1.42%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -5.69% / Under gap -1.09%

No Play

Model O 45.5% | U 54.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.2

George Kirby

SEA vs TB | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 5.50

Strongest Gap No Play +1.19%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -148 / U +116

Over gap +1.19% / Under gap -7.17%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -158 / U +120

Over gap -0.37% / Under gap -6.32%

No Play

Model O 60.9% | U 39.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.7

Michael King

SD vs HOU | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.27

Strongest Gap No Play +0.73%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +140 / U -180

Over gap +0.73% / Under gap -6.69%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -145

Over gap -6.38% / Under gap -1.58%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -165 / U +127

Over gap -4.63% / Under gap -1.68%

No Play

Model O 42.4% | U 57.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.9

Kyle Bradish

BAL vs TEX | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.70

Strongest Gap No Play -0.29%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -0.29% / Under gap -5.63%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O -105 / U -122

Over gap -2.49% / Under gap -3.68%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -2.49% / Under gap -4.29%

No Play

Model O 48.7% | U 51.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.5

Kyle Freeland

COL vs STL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.79

Strongest Gap No Play -2.30%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap -2.30% / Under gap -3.80%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -114 / U -112

Over gap -2.52% / Under gap -3.58%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -2.74% / Under gap -4.24%

No Play

Model O 50.7% | U 49.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.