Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYY | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TOR | 5.84 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs WSH | 5.69 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 5.00 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 4.84 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.81 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs ATH | 4.75 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CLE | 4.74 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIL | 4.68 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.67 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Corbin
Probable starter
|
TOR vs PHI | 4.11 | 19.9% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BAL | 3.90 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SD | 3.63 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs CIN | 3.48 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SF | 3.00 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.