Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 6.15 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TB | 5.93 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 5.92 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 5.61 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CWS | 5.49 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 5.35 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs BOS | 5.21 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIL | 4.93 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Trevor McDonald
Probable starter
|
SF vs CHC | 4.83 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Ben Brown
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SF | 4.76 | 23.6% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs STL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Trey Gibson
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SD | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TEX | 4.63 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs WSH | 4.56 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIA | 4.52 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs HOU | 4.38 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs KC | 4.31 | 19.7% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CIN | 4.27 | 23.8% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs AZ | 4.11 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs LAD | 4.05 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PHI | 3.85 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs ATH | 3.67 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PIT | 3.54 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Joey Estes
Probable starter
|
ATH vs COL | 3.50 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIN | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SEA | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 3.10 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs BAL | 3.10 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAA | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.