Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs PHI | 6.94 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TOR | 6.39 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BAL | 6.12 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs STL | 5.92 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SD | 5.86 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAD | 5.71 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs KC | 5.38 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 5.01 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs AZ | 4.96 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SEA | 4.72 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIL | 4.52 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CLE | 4.45 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CWS | 4.44 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 4.40 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Kai-Wei Teng
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.26 | 25.0% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Lucas Giolito
Probable starter
|
SD vs CIN | 4.26 | 20.2% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYY | 4.18 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Stephen Kolek
Probable starter
|
KC vs TEX | 4.11 | 18.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs COL | 3.90 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PIT | 3.89 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 3.85 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIA | 3.85 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYM | 3.83 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs WSH | 3.80 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 3.67 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs ATL | 3.65 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SF | 3.64 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs CHC | 3.41 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs ATH | 3.40 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.