Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 5.92 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIL | 5.84 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIA | 5.71 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs CHC | 5.69 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs BOS | 5.38 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs STL | 5.38 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TEX | 5.22 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PHI | 5.12 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 4.86 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs KC | 4.81 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 4.77 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 4.74 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SD | 4.72 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CWS | 4.70 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs COL | 4.68 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TB | 4.67 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PIT | 4.58 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Patrick Corbin
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 4.11 | 19.9% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Stephen Kolek
Probable starter
|
KC vs HOU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs AZ | 4.01 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs WSH | 3.90 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CIN | 3.85 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs LAD | 3.65 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SEA | 3.38 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Ryan Rolison
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SF | 3.38 | 22.0% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Casey Legumina
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAA | 3.37 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs BAL | 3.10 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs ATH | 3.03 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIN | 2.58 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.