Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 5.98 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 5.92 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs SEA | 5.79 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CLE | 5.58 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs LAD | 5.55 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CWS | 5.30 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PIT | 5.24 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs TB | 5.08 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs LAA | 5.07 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TEX | 4.97 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.69 | 19.7% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs WSH | 4.65 | 23.8% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 4.65 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SF | 4.63 | 21.1% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs DET | 4.56 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Trevor McDonald
Probable starter
|
SF vs CHC | 4.45 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 4.25 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATL | 4.14 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIL | 4.05 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.00 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 3.73 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYM | 3.48 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs COL | 3.47 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs AZ | 3.04 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 2.96 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs MIA | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Huascar Brazobán
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SD | 2.94 | 22.9% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 12.9 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Gilbert
Probable starter
|
CWS vs PHI | 2.64 | 23.5% | 26.3% | 22.4% | 11.7 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.