Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SEA | 5.86 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs TEX | 4.98 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BAL | 4.71 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 4.68 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs COL | 4.42 | 21.5% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs STL | 4.31 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAD | 4.28 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIA | 3.98 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs KC | 3.84 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs CHC | 3.80 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs AZ | 3.50 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 3.48 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PIT | 3.40 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYM | 3.14 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CWS | 3.10 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.