Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PHI | 6.36 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs STL | 6.04 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 5.89 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 5.41 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs AZ | 5.17 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SD | 5.03 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIA | 4.98 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 4.97 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 4.87 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs BOS | 4.86 | 25.2% | 29.2% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Strider
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 4.84 | 23.6% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PIT | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TEX | 4.68 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs COL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs CHC | 4.64 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs LAD | 4.53 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs KC | 4.24 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs HOU | 4.13 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs WSH | 4.05 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CIN | 4.02 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Sam Aldegheri
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TB | 3.96 | 20.5% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SEA | 3.96 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIL | 3.88 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAA | 3.78 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Canning
Probable starter
|
SD vs BAL | 3.70 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CWS | 3.42 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SF | 3.19 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIN | 3.19 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.