Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 6.77 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs NYM | 6.24 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIN | 6.15 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs COL | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Kai-Wei Teng
Probable starter
|
HOU vs DET | 4.64 | 25.0% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs PIT | 4.52 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAA | 4.45 | 21.3% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs AZ | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs TB | 4.27 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATH | 4.23 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs SD | 4.20 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs KC | 4.02 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs HOU | 4.02 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 3.98 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs CHC | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAD | 3.47 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Mitch Spence
Probable starter
|
KC vs WSH | 3.35 | 18.9% | 16.1% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Tobias Myers
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CIN | 3.30 | 20.2% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.