Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CWS | 6.14 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TOR | 5.93 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs KC | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs WSH | 5.58 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CLE | 5.52 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BAL | 5.25 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs TEX | 5.11 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs CIN | 5.08 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PIT | 5.02 | 26.8% | 27.2% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs COL | 4.97 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 4.96 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 4.95 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYY | 4.74 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Austin Warren
Probable starter
|
NYM vs STL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAD | 4.61 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs AZ | 4.36 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 4.28 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIL | 4.23 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs CHC | 4.13 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIA | 4.07 | 21.3% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SD | 3.90 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SF | 3.77 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SEA | 3.67 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs PHI | 3.67 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs ATH | 3.59 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYM | 2.89 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.