Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TEX | 5.66 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYM | 5.30 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CWS | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIN | 5.24 | 25.2% | 29.2% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BAL | 5.09 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.68 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAA | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SEA | 4.65 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 4.51 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PHI | 4.46 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs STL | 4.38 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIL | 4.36 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs ATL | 4.26 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CLE | 3.85 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYY | 3.67 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SF | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs KC | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.