Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CWS | 5.90 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BAL | 5.63 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIL | 5.52 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CIN | 5.52 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SEA | 5.48 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs TB | 5.40 | 26.8% | 27.2% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs NYM | 5.17 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SF | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs HOU | 4.77 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jr. Ritchie
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SF | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATH | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAA | 4.39 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs DET | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Sean Sullivan
Probable starter
|
COL vs CHC | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 4.26 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYY | 4.15 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
ATH vs PIT | 4.04 | 18.5% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 5 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CLE | 3.96 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs KC | 3.96 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAD | 3.78 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs WSH | 3.75 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Sam Aldegheri
Probable starter
|
LAA vs AZ | 3.58 | 20.5% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs COL | 3.57 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs SD | 3.57 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs ATL | 3.42 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 3 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 3.29 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.