Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BAL | 6.50 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs DET | 6.44 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 6.31 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CWS | 4.83 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SF | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs COL | 4.79 | 21.5% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs STL | 4.70 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TEX | 4.68 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs WSH | 4.60 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs AZ | 4.58 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs HOU | 4.57 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Kodai Senga
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CIN | 4.45 | 24.5% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAA | 4.36 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs NYM | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs PIT | 4.23 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIN | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs KC | 4.15 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.05 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs NYY | 3.98 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAD | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs ATH | 3.90 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIL | 3.80 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs TB | 3.78 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CLE | 3.77 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs ATL | 3.42 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs CHC | 3.42 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs SEA | 3.29 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs SD | 3.27 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 3.12 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.