Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 6.53 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CIN | 5.98 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs ATL | 5.98 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SD | 5.58 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATH | 5.55 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CHC | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Ben Brown
Probable starter
|
CHC vs TOR | 5.14 | 23.6% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs STL | 5.11 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAA | 4.68 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIN | 4.65 | 23.8% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CLE | 4.62 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs HOU | 4.59 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BOS | 4.43 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs AZ | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Trey Gibson
Probable starter
|
BAL vs LAD | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIA | 4.26 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SEA | 4.25 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs COL | 4.14 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs PIT | 4.05 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs BAL | 3.80 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs NYY | 3.73 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIL | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs WSH | 3.33 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 3.27 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs TEX | 3.10 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs TB | 3.04 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs KC | 2.58 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.