Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SD | 6.52 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 5.01 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 4.95 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 4.40 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs STL | 4.08 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Casey Legumina
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 3.37 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Hart
Probable starter
|
SD vs ATL | 2.99 | 19.2% | 16.2% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs AZ | 2.96 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.