Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 6.53 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYY | 6.31 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 6.15 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAA | 5.69 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs PHI | 5.61 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs ATH | 5.05 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TB | 4.97 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 4.94 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs LAD | 4.84 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CWS | 4.81 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs ATL | 4.72 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 4.61 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 4.51 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs BAL | 4.44 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.42 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs HOU | 4.36 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SD | 4.36 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SF | 4.29 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Beck Way
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIN | 4.21 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 4.20 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs CLE | 4.16 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 4.05 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs WSH | 4.02 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs COL | 3.85 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 3.73 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Carson Palmquist
Probable starter
|
WSH vs AZ | 3.53 | 18.5% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYM | 3.42 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Germán Márquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIA | 3.04 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs MIL | 3.03 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.