Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs PIT | 5.50 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 5.48 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAD | 5.30 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs SF | 5.11 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs STL | 4.96 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs NYM | 4.84 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs PIT | 4.83 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs ATL | 4.70 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs HOU | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs WSH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 4.43 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIA | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs ATH | 4.36 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs DET | 4.28 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CIN | 4.28 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs AZ | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs KC | 4.26 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 4.18 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TEX | 4.15 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYY | 4.14 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 3.97 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIL | 3.93 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SEA | 3.90 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYY | 3.90 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PHI | 3.89 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Alexander
Probable starter
|
TEX vs CWS | 3.55 | 20.8% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SD | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable starter
|
STL vs LAA | 3.14 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs CHC | 3.10 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs COL | 3.04 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Braydon Fisher
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 2.98 | 20.6% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 13.2 | 10 | 1 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.