Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs STL | 5.98 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs LAD | 5.32 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs TEX | 5.31 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 5.30 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 4.70 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs COL | 4.62 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs HOU | 4.58 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 4.46 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIL | 4.14 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs TB | 4.13 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PIT | 3.96 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 3.64 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TOR | 3.44 | 19.4% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 13.3 | 10 | 2 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CHC | 3.40 | 16.1% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 3 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SF | 3.22 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYY | 2.58 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.