Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs BAL | 6.39 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PIT | 6.24 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAA | 5.98 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs AZ | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs PHI | 5.86 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIN | 5.63 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs BOS | 5.07 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SEA | 5.01 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs COL | 4.73 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs DET | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jr. Ritchie
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Robert Stock
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIL | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs CHC | 4.45 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs NYY | 4.28 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAD | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 4.26 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TB | 4.15 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs KC | 4.05 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CLE | 3.98 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CIN | 3.90 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs STL | 3.67 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs TOR | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Hart
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 3.36 | 19.2% | 16.2% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs CWS | 3.33 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs ATH | 3.10 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 3.04 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.