Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs WSH | 6.31 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SF | 6.15 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CHC | 6.15 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs KC | 5.66 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs COL | 5.54 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs NYM | 5.35 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs STL | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PIT | 4.84 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Cade Povich
Probable starter
|
BAL vs LAA | 4.77 | 21.9% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 1 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs TB | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIN | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs HOU | 4.51 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TOR | 4.47 | 22.0% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CLE | 4.46 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CWS | 4.42 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 4.39 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BAL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATH | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs DET | 4.28 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIL | 4.23 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CIN | 4.14 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs SEA | 4.02 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs BOS | 3.98 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 3.98 | 21.5% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs LAD | 3.57 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Blade Tidwell
Probable starter
|
SF vs TEX | 3.45 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Carson Palmquist
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PHI | 3.15 | 18.5% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable starter
|
STL vs NYY | 3.14 | 19.6% | 18.4% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 3.10 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.