Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs NYY
Score 66.3 | Lineup K 6.43
|
6.78 | 6.74 | -0.04 | 86.0% | 75.2% | 62.4% | 49.1% | 36.7% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs BOS
Score 66.5 | Lineup K 6.04
|
6.63 | 6.51 | -0.12 | 84.5% | 72.9% | 59.6% | 46.1% | 33.8% |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs TB
Score 78.4 | Lineup K 5.92
|
5.72 | 6.04 | +0.32 | 80.8% | 67.8% | 53.5% | 39.8% | 28.0% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs SEA
Score 58.1 | Lineup K 6.27
|
5.31 | 5.68 | +0.37 | 77.4% | 63.3% | 48.4% | 34.8% | 23.6% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs SD
Score 52.5 | Lineup K 5.52
|
5.68 | 5.64 | -0.04 | 77.0% | 62.7% | 47.9% | 34.3% | 23.2% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs LAD
Score 46.4 | Lineup K 5.43
|
5.64 | 5.55 | -0.09 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs DET
Score 44.2 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.85 | 4.93 | +0.08 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs CHC
Score 39.5 | Lineup K 5.30
|
4.56 | 4.87 | +0.31 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs COL
Score 65.3 | Lineup K 5.88
|
4.21 | 4.82 | +0.61 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Kodai Senga
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs STL
Score 60.8 | Lineup K 5.66
|
4.25 | 4.78 | +0.53 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs LAA
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 5.31
|
4.09 | 4.60 | +0.51 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Brayan Bello
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs HOU
Score 36.5 | Lineup K 4.85
|
3.87 | 4.17 | +0.30 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Aaron Civale
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs ATL
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 4.77
|
3.87 | 4.14 | +0.27 | 56.9% | 39.5% | 25.1% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs AZ
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 3.91
|
4.19 | 4.02 | -0.17 | 54.9% | 37.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs TOR
Score 34.2 | Lineup K 4.28
|
3.81 | 3.96 | +0.15 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Zach Eflin
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TEX
Score 44.7 | Lineup K 5.05
|
3.42 | 3.81 | +0.39 | 51.1% | 33.7% | 20.3% | 11.3% | 5.9% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs NYM
Score 21.7 | Lineup K 4.32
|
3.63 | 3.78 | +0.15 | 50.6% | 33.2% | 19.9% | 11.0% | 5.7% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CWS
Score 34.9 | Lineup K 3.40
|
3.58 | 3.47 | -0.11 | 44.7% | 27.8% | 15.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% |
Germán Márquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SF
Score 20.1 | Lineup K 3.65
|
3.48 | 3.45 | -0.03 | 44.3% | 27.4% | 15.4% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIA
Score 37.9 | Lineup K 4.71
|
3.08 | 3.42 | +0.34 | 43.7% | 26.9% | 15.0% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.