Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs ATH
Score 82.0 | Lineup K 7.03
|
7.20 | 7.32 | +0.12 | 89.3% | 80.2% | 68.8% | 56.3% | 43.9% |
Garrett Crochet
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs HOU
Score 74.0 | Lineup K 6.35
|
7.43 | 7.19 | -0.24 | 88.6% | 79.2% | 67.5% | 54.7% | 42.3% |
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs AZ
Score 71.7 | Lineup K 6.09
|
6.62 | 6.55 | -0.07 | 84.7% | 73.3% | 60.1% | 46.6% | 34.3% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs COL
Score 69.3 | Lineup K 6.44
|
6.33 | 6.53 | +0.20 | 84.6% | 73.1% | 59.9% | 46.4% | 34.1% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs WSH
Score 65.7 | Lineup K 5.75
|
6.47 | 6.30 | -0.17 | 82.9% | 70.7% | 56.9% | 43.3% | 31.2% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs CIN
Score 85.7 | Lineup K 6.99
|
5.61 | 6.27 | +0.66 | 82.7% | 70.4% | 56.5% | 42.9% | 30.8% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs CLE
Score 72.0 | Lineup K 5.41
|
6.55 | 6.26 | -0.29 | 82.6% | 70.3% | 56.4% | 42.8% | 30.7% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs TB
Score 70.0 | Lineup K 5.06
|
6.42 | 6.16 | -0.26 | 81.8% | 69.2% | 55.1% | 41.4% | 29.5% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs STL
Score 73.4 | Lineup K 6.10
|
5.84 | 6.04 | +0.20 | 80.8% | 67.8% | 53.5% | 39.8% | 28.0% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs NYY
Score 56.2 | Lineup K 6.01
|
5.84 | 5.93 | +0.09 | 79.8% | 66.4% | 52.0% | 38.3% | 26.6% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs SEA
Score 66.4 | Lineup K 6.09
|
5.62 | 5.86 | +0.24 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Nick Pivetta
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SF
Score 64.6 | Lineup K 5.63
|
5.87 | 5.85 | -0.02 | 79.1% | 65.5% | 50.8% | 37.2% | 25.7% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 66.0 | Lineup K 5.64
|
5.62 | 5.70 | +0.08 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs BAL
Score 54.8 | Lineup K 5.66
|
5.58 | 5.63 | +0.05 | 76.9% | 62.6% | 47.7% | 34.1% | 23.0% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs LAA
Score 55.5 | Lineup K 5.52
|
5.16 | 5.42 | +0.26 | 74.7% | 59.8% | 44.6% | 31.2% | 20.6% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs LAD
Score 37.2 | Lineup K 5.13
|
5.51 | 5.32 | -0.19 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs DET
Score 47.1 | Lineup K 5.41
|
5.14 | 5.22 | +0.08 | 72.4% | 56.9% | 41.6% | 28.5% | 18.4% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs CHC
Score 47.0 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.94 | 5.06 | +0.12 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CWS
Score 48.7 | Lineup K 5.08
|
4.97 | 5.05 | +0.08 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TEX
Score 40.2 | Lineup K 5.28
|
4.87 | 4.97 | +0.10 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs PIT
Score 49.0 | Lineup K 5.09
|
4.89 | 4.96 | +0.07 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs BOS
Score 42.9 | Lineup K 4.63
|
5.02 | 4.86 | -0.16 | 67.8% | 51.4% | 36.1% | 23.7% | 14.5% |
Shane Smith
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIA
Score 56.0 | Lineup K 5.31
|
4.26 | 4.70 | +0.44 | 65.6% | 48.9% | 33.7% | 21.6% | 13.0% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIN
Score 43.6 | Lineup K 4.92
|
4.51 | 4.63 | +0.12 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Luis Severino
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs ATL
Score 33.3 | Lineup K 4.69
|
4.10 | 4.25 | +0.15 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PHI
Score 33.9 | Lineup K 4.83
|
3.83 | 4.13 | +0.30 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs NYM
Score 18.4 | Lineup K 3.87
|
4.18 | 3.97 | -0.21 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs SD
Score 29.3 | Lineup K 4.31
|
3.68 | 3.84 | +0.16 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs MIL
Score 48.4 | Lineup K 4.12
|
3.44 | 3.75 | +0.31 | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.5% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs TOR
Score 21.5 | Lineup K 3.72
|
3.74 | 3.68 | -0.06 | 48.7% | 31.4% | 18.5% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.