Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs CWS
Score 69.8 | Lineup K 5.97
|
6.04 | 6.23 | +0.19 | 82.3% | 69.9% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 30.3% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CIN
Score 66.3 | Lineup K 6.14
|
6.02 | 6.14 | +0.12 | 81.6% | 68.9% | 54.8% | 41.1% | 29.2% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs SD
Score 61.5 | Lineup K 5.96
|
6.13 | 6.07 | -0.06 | 81.0% | 68.1% | 53.9% | 40.2% | 28.4% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs STL
Score 62.6 | Lineup K 6.36
|
5.62 | 5.88 | +0.26 | 79.3% | 65.8% | 51.3% | 37.6% | 26.0% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs PIT
Score 73.3 | Lineup K 6.07
|
5.56 | 5.85 | +0.29 | 79.1% | 65.5% | 50.8% | 37.2% | 25.7% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAA
Score 79.2 | Lineup K 6.57
|
5.17 | 5.79 | +0.62 | 78.5% | 64.7% | 50.0% | 36.4% | 24.9% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs COL
Score 70.4 | Lineup K 6.62
|
5.06 | 5.75 | +0.69 | 78.1% | 64.2% | 49.4% | 35.8% | 24.5% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs BOS
Score 59.5 | Lineup K 5.83
|
4.81 | 5.15 | +0.34 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs MIA
Score 51.1 | Lineup K 5.31
|
4.99 | 5.06 | +0.07 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CHC
Score 43.3 | Lineup K 4.76
|
5.19 | 5.01 | -0.18 | 69.8% | 53.8% | 38.5% | 25.7% | 16.1% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs ATL
Score 39.2 | Lineup K 5.18
|
4.83 | 4.91 | +0.08 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYY
Score 55.6 | Lineup K 5.56
|
4.59 | 4.90 | +0.31 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs BAL
Score 45.7 | Lineup K 5.63
|
4.54 | 4.90 | +0.36 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs AZ
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.73
|
4.91 | 4.81 | -0.10 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TB
Score 52.9 | Lineup K 4.77
|
4.68 | 4.77 | +0.09 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs TEX
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.55 | 4.77 | +0.22 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Joe Boyle
Probable | projected
|
TB vs MIN
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.37 | 4.62 | +0.25 | 64.5% | 47.6% | 32.5% | 20.6% | 12.2% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs PHI
Score 36.1 | Lineup K 4.72
|
4.52 | 4.58 | +0.06 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Chad Patrick
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs KC
Score 50.2 | Lineup K 4.89
|
4.32 | 4.57 | +0.25 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs ATH
Score 45.0 | Lineup K 5.16
|
3.85 | 4.29 | +0.44 | 59.4% | 42.0% | 27.4% | 16.5% | 9.3% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs HOU
Score 30.7 | Lineup K 4.04
|
4.21 | 4.09 | -0.12 | 56.1% | 38.6% | 24.4% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs NYM
Score 34.1 | Lineup K 4.36
|
3.98 | 4.06 | +0.08 | 55.5% | 38.1% | 23.9% | 13.9% | 7.6% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs DET
Score 27.1 | Lineup K 4.11
|
3.21 | 3.43 | +0.22 | 43.9% | 27.1% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.