Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs COL
Score 77.8 | Lineup K 6.71
|
6.07 | 6.50 | +0.43 | 84.4% | 72.8% | 59.5% | 46.0% | 33.7% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs STL
Score 64.5 | Lineup K 5.80
|
5.88 | 5.92 | +0.04 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs WSH
Score 72.1 | Lineup K 5.98
|
5.60 | 5.83 | +0.23 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CLE
Score 58.0 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.81 | 4.94 | +0.13 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYY
Score 35.9 | Lineup K 5.43
|
4.56 | 4.91 | +0.35 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs PIT
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 5.34
|
4.65 | 4.90 | +0.25 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs ATL
Score 27.7 | Lineup K 4.37
|
5.18 | 4.81 | -0.37 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs MIA
Score 40.8 | Lineup K 4.54
|
4.85 | 4.80 | -0.05 | 67.0% | 50.5% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIL
Score 41.9 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.56 | 4.66 | +0.10 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs NYM
Score 30.0 | Lineup K 4.49
|
4.80 | 4.62 | -0.18 | 64.5% | 47.6% | 32.5% | 20.6% | 12.2% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CHC
Score 31.5 | Lineup K 4.29
|
4.84 | 4.62 | -0.22 | 64.5% | 47.6% | 32.5% | 20.6% | 12.2% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs DET
Score 36.4 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.38 | 4.53 | +0.15 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Chad Patrick
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs KC
Score 50.2 | Lineup K 4.89
|
4.31 | 4.51 | +0.20 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CIN
Score 45.2 | Lineup K 5.27
|
4.13 | 4.51 | +0.38 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs LAD
Score 21.8 | Lineup K 4.32
|
4.66 | 4.44 | -0.22 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs AZ
Score 26.1 | Lineup K 4.17
|
4.63 | 4.38 | -0.25 | 60.8% | 43.6% | 28.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAA
Score 36.0 | Lineup K 4.78
|
4.01 | 4.23 | +0.22 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs SF
Score 37.7 | Lineup K 4.52
|
3.90 | 4.08 | +0.18 | 55.9% | 38.4% | 24.2% | 14.1% | 7.7% |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs BAL
Score 19.2 | Lineup K 3.03
|
3.94 | 3.53 | -0.41 | 45.9% | 28.8% | 16.5% | 8.7% | 4.2% |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs SEA
Score 18.6 | Lineup K 4.47
|
3.12 | 3.41 | +0.29 | 43.5% | 26.7% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs BOS
Score 14.8 | Lineup K 3.42
|
2.60 | 2.86 | +0.26 | 32.3% | 17.6% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.