Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs LAA
Score 86.8 | Lineup K 7.24
|
6.38 | 6.88 | +0.50 | 86.9% | 76.5% | 64.0% | 50.9% | 38.5% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 67.8 | Lineup K 6.06
|
6.34 | 6.33 | -0.01 | 83.1% | 71.0% | 57.3% | 43.7% | 31.6% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 70.0 | Lineup K 6.13
|
5.90 | 6.14 | +0.24 | 81.6% | 68.9% | 54.8% | 41.1% | 29.2% |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs BOS
Score 77.9 | Lineup K 6.39
|
5.66 | 6.11 | +0.45 | 81.4% | 68.6% | 54.4% | 40.7% | 28.8% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 64.2 | Lineup K 6.03
|
5.86 | 5.99 | +0.13 | 80.3% | 67.2% | 52.8% | 39.1% | 27.4% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs KC
Score 53.5 | Lineup K 5.17
|
5.69 | 5.58 | -0.11 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs ATL
Score 39.5 | Lineup K 5.54
|
4.66 | 4.93 | +0.27 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIN
Score 39.0 | Lineup K 4.69
|
5.00 | 4.90 | -0.10 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs LAD
Score 41.9 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.47 | 4.68 | +0.21 | 65.3% | 48.6% | 33.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% |
Brayan Bello
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIL
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.82
|
4.27 | 4.45 | +0.18 | 61.9% | 44.8% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs PHI
Score 32.4 | Lineup K 4.77
|
4.30 | 4.40 | +0.10 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs HOU
Score 36.4 | Lineup K 4.44
|
4.34 | 4.33 | -0.01 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs STL
Score 42.8 | Lineup K 4.56
|
4.05 | 4.20 | +0.15 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs TB
Score 42.3 | Lineup K 4.17
|
3.86 | 3.94 | +0.08 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CIN
Score 33.2 | Lineup K 4.08
|
3.93 | 3.93 | +0.00 | 53.3% | 35.8% | 22.0% | 12.5% | 6.7% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CLE
Score 48.0 | Lineup K 4.35
|
3.62 | 3.91 | +0.29 | 52.9% | 35.5% | 21.8% | 12.3% | 6.5% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs WSH
Score 30.3 | Lineup K 3.98
|
3.42 | 3.56 | +0.14 | 46.4% | 29.3% | 16.9% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
Germán Márquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PIT
Score 12.9 | Lineup K 3.76
|
3.01 | 3.21 | +0.20 | 39.5% | 23.3% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.