Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs NYM
Score 50.1 | Lineup K 5.75
|
6.14 | 6.00 | -0.14 | 80.4% | 67.3% | 52.9% | 39.2% | 27.5% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs MIA
Score 64.8 | Lineup K 5.90
|
5.79 | 5.90 | +0.11 | 79.5% | 66.1% | 51.5% | 37.9% | 26.3% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAA
Score 71.0 | Lineup K 6.70
|
5.30 | 5.89 | +0.59 | 79.4% | 65.9% | 51.4% | 37.7% | 26.2% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CIN
Score 45.0 | Lineup K 5.51
|
5.40 | 5.47 | +0.07 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Kodai Senga
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs SF
Score 58.1 | Lineup K 5.59
|
5.13 | 5.33 | +0.20 | 73.7% | 58.5% | 43.3% | 30.0% | 19.6% |
Kris Bubic
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIL
Score 58.7 | Lineup K 5.51
|
5.06 | 5.25 | +0.19 | 72.8% | 57.3% | 42.1% | 28.9% | 18.7% |
Edward Cabrera
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CLE
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 4.88
|
5.20 | 5.10 | -0.10 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs PIT
Score 57.2 | Lineup K 5.74
|
4.69 | 5.09 | +0.40 | 70.8% | 55.0% | 39.7% | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs SD
Score 47.7 | Lineup K 4.92
|
5.12 | 5.04 | -0.08 | 70.2% | 54.2% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs HOU
Score 52.3 | Lineup K 5.00
|
4.93 | 4.96 | +0.03 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs ATL
Score 35.1 | Lineup K 4.90
|
4.98 | 4.89 | -0.09 | 68.2% | 51.9% | 36.6% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CLE
Score 58.0 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.74 | 4.84 | +0.10 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs CWS
Score 46.0 | Lineup K 4.34
|
4.80 | 4.67 | -0.13 | 65.2% | 48.4% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs KC
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 4.26
|
4.80 | 4.56 | -0.24 | 63.6% | 46.6% | 31.5% | 19.8% | 11.7% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CHC
Score 31.5 | Lineup K 4.29
|
4.77 | 4.53 | -0.24 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TB
Score 39.4 | Lineup K 3.95
|
4.67 | 4.42 | -0.25 | 61.5% | 44.3% | 29.4% | 18.1% | 10.4% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs TOR
Score 25.0 | Lineup K 3.99
|
4.44 | 4.24 | -0.20 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs MIN
Score 41.1 | Lineup K 4.60
|
3.76 | 4.07 | +0.31 | 55.7% | 38.3% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Chris Paddack
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYY
Score 27.5 | Lineup K 4.65
|
3.81 | 4.03 | +0.22 | 55.0% | 37.6% | 23.5% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs STL
Score 35.2 | Lineup K 4.05
|
3.58 | 3.74 | +0.16 | 49.8% | 32.5% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs PHI
Score 25.1 | Lineup K 4.04
|
3.51 | 3.62 | +0.11 | 47.6% | 30.4% | 17.7% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs BOS
Score 23.3 | Lineup K 4.08
|
3.50 | 3.62 | +0.12 | 47.6% | 30.4% | 17.7% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs AZ
Score 16.4 | Lineup K 3.53
|
3.62 | 3.49 | -0.13 | 45.1% | 28.1% | 15.9% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
Taijuan Walker
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs COL
Score 36.2 | Lineup K 4.68
|
3.06 | 3.39 | +0.33 | 43.1% | 26.4% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.