Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs MIL
Score 77.2 | Lineup K 6.67
|
7.65 | 7.47 | -0.18 | 90.0% | 81.3% | 70.3% | 58.0% | 45.7% |
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIN
Score 83.8 | Lineup K 7.17
|
6.18 | 6.70 | +0.52 | 85.7% | 74.8% | 61.9% | 48.6% | 36.2% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs ATH
Score 72.3 | Lineup K 6.21
|
5.99 | 6.18 | +0.19 | 81.9% | 69.4% | 55.4% | 41.7% | 29.7% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs LAD
Score 46.0 | Lineup K 5.45
|
6.46 | 6.09 | -0.37 | 81.2% | 68.3% | 54.2% | 40.5% | 28.6% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs SD
Score 74.7 | Lineup K 6.15
|
5.81 | 6.05 | +0.24 | 80.8% | 67.9% | 53.6% | 39.9% | 28.1% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SF
Score 64.8 | Lineup K 5.64
|
6.13 | 6.03 | -0.10 | 80.7% | 67.6% | 53.3% | 39.6% | 27.9% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs AZ
Score 58.9 | Lineup K 5.27
|
6.30 | 5.98 | -0.32 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs BOS
Score 65.2 | Lineup K 5.41
|
6.13 | 5.95 | -0.18 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | 38.6% | 26.9% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs PHI
Score 51.5 | Lineup K 5.86
|
5.66 | 5.74 | +0.08 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
Nick Pivetta
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PIT
Score 60.3 | Lineup K 5.70
|
5.68 | 5.73 | +0.05 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 50.4 | Lineup K 5.67
|
5.74 | 5.72 | -0.02 | 77.8% | 63.8% | 49.0% | 35.4% | 24.1% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs KC
Score 45.0 | Lineup K 4.88
|
6.18 | 5.70 | -0.48 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs TOR
Score 65.8 | Lineup K 5.43
|
5.58 | 5.60 | +0.02 | 76.6% | 62.2% | 47.3% | 33.7% | 22.7% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 5.60
|
5.52 | 5.59 | +0.07 | 76.5% | 62.1% | 47.1% | 33.6% | 22.6% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CIN
Score 51.7 | Lineup K 6.07
|
5.22 | 5.53 | +0.31 | 75.9% | 61.3% | 46.3% | 32.8% | 21.9% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs ATL
Score 43.1 | Lineup K 5.35
|
5.45 | 5.39 | -0.06 | 74.4% | 59.4% | 44.2% | 30.8% | 20.2% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 53.3 | Lineup K 5.52
|
5.02 | 5.21 | +0.19 | 72.3% | 56.8% | 41.5% | 28.4% | 18.2% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs COL
Score 60.3 | Lineup K 5.25
|
4.74 | 4.96 | +0.22 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs NYM
Score 38.0 | Lineup K 5.22
|
4.41 | 4.65 | +0.24 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Shane Smith
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs BAL
Score 48.8 | Lineup K 5.51
|
4.16 | 4.63 | +0.47 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIA
Score 48.4 | Lineup K 4.90
|
4.44 | 4.60 | +0.16 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CWS
Score 49.1 | Lineup K 4.84
|
4.34 | 4.51 | +0.17 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CLE
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 4.59
|
4.43 | 4.48 | +0.05 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs STL
Score 38.3 | Lineup K 4.72
|
4.11 | 4.28 | +0.17 | 59.2% | 41.9% | 27.2% | 16.4% | 9.3% |
Aaron Civale
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs NYY
Score 37.5 | Lineup K 5.25
|
3.83 | 4.25 | +0.42 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs CHC
Score 46.0 | Lineup K 4.18
|
4.23 | 4.20 | -0.03 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs HOU
Score 20.8 | Lineup K 3.64
|
4.25 | 3.94 | -0.31 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs WSH
Score 30.9 | Lineup K 3.90
|
3.60 | 3.65 | +0.05 | 48.1% | 30.9% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
Javier Assad
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs TB
Score 32.8 | Lineup K 3.96
|
3.41 | 3.55 | +0.14 | 46.2% | 29.1% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.