Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs DET
Score 79.9 | Lineup K 6.98
|
6.90 | 7.16 | +0.26 | 88.4% | 78.9% | 67.1% | 54.4% | 41.9% |
Cole Ragans
Probable | projected
|
KC vs NYY
Score 73.0 | Lineup K 7.04
|
5.64 | 6.31 | +0.67 | 83.0% | 70.8% | 57.1% | 43.5% | 31.3% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs MIA
Score 73.5 | Lineup K 5.54
|
6.29 | 6.14 | -0.15 | 81.6% | 68.9% | 54.8% | 41.1% | 29.2% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SEA
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 5.93
|
6.07 | 6.04 | -0.03 | 80.8% | 67.8% | 53.5% | 39.8% | 28.0% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs LAA
Score 75.3 | Lineup K 6.56
|
5.01 | 5.66 | +0.65 | 77.2% | 63.0% | 48.1% | 34.5% | 23.4% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TEX
Score 67.1 | Lineup K 5.82
|
5.40 | 5.62 | +0.22 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs BAL
Score 47.6 | Lineup K 5.34
|
5.66 | 5.54 | -0.12 | 76.0% | 61.4% | 46.4% | 32.9% | 22.0% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs AZ
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 4.95
|
5.85 | 5.53 | -0.32 | 75.9% | 61.3% | 46.3% | 32.8% | 21.9% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs BOS
Score 55.6 | Lineup K 6.38
|
4.87 | 5.48 | +0.61 | 75.3% | 60.6% | 45.5% | 32.1% | 21.3% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs WSH
Score 52.9 | Lineup K 5.38
|
5.50 | 5.47 | -0.03 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CIN
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 5.90
|
4.59 | 5.14 | +0.55 | 71.5% | 55.7% | 40.4% | 27.4% | 17.5% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PHI
Score 52.0 | Lineup K 5.67
|
4.67 | 5.08 | +0.41 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs KC
Score 31.2 | Lineup K 4.00
|
5.55 | 4.98 | -0.57 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs MIL
Score 58.4 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.90 | 4.96 | +0.06 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs STL
Score 50.9 | Lineup K 4.72
|
4.99 | 4.90 | -0.09 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CLE
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 4.99
|
4.65 | 4.78 | +0.13 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIN
Score 49.1 | Lineup K 5.53
|
4.21 | 4.72 | +0.51 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs CWS
Score 43.3 | Lineup K 4.23
|
5.00 | 4.71 | -0.29 | 65.8% | 49.0% | 33.8% | 21.7% | 13.1% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs TB
Score 50.1 | Lineup K 4.89
|
4.59 | 4.65 | +0.06 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Ryne Nelson
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs TOR
Score 35.6 | Lineup K 4.10
|
4.71 | 4.44 | -0.27 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 25.3 | Lineup K 4.34
|
4.44 | 4.32 | -0.12 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Javier Assad
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs NYM
Score 22.0 | Lineup K 4.28
|
3.83 | 3.94 | +0.11 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs HOU
Score 21.1 | Lineup K 3.61
|
3.70 | 3.58 | -0.12 | 46.8% | 29.7% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.