Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CHC
Score 74.8 | Lineup K 6.22
|
6.30 | 6.40 | +0.10 | 83.7% | 71.8% | 58.2% | 44.6% | 32.5% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs BOS
Score 64.2 | Lineup K 6.21
|
5.92 | 6.09 | +0.17 | 81.2% | 68.3% | 54.2% | 40.5% | 28.6% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs SF
Score 65.7 | Lineup K 5.35
|
5.07 | 5.23 | +0.16 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs STL
Score 63.1 | Lineup K 5.53
|
4.58 | 4.96 | +0.38 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Kris Bubic
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CWS
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 5.43
|
4.62 | 4.94 | +0.32 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs HOU
Score 56.1 | Lineup K 5.57
|
4.56 | 4.94 | +0.38 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs PHI
Score 52.9 | Lineup K 5.48
|
4.62 | 4.93 | +0.31 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Ben Brown
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs ATL
Score 39.1 | Lineup K 4.99
|
4.75 | 4.79 | +0.04 | 66.9% | 50.3% | 35.1% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SEA
Score 41.7 | Lineup K 4.88
|
4.74 | 4.76 | +0.02 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs SD
Score 35.9 | Lineup K 4.54
|
4.61 | 4.53 | -0.08 | 63.1% | 46.1% | 31.1% | 19.4% | 11.4% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs LAD
Score 28.5 | Lineup K 4.35
|
4.25 | 4.21 | -0.04 | 58.1% | 40.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% |
Griffin Canning
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIL
Score 30.1 | Lineup K 4.42
|
3.69 | 3.88 | +0.19 | 52.4% | 34.9% | 21.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
Chase Dollander
Probable | projected
|
COL vs PIT
Score 26.2 | Lineup K 4.41
|
3.49 | 3.74 | +0.25 | 49.8% | 32.5% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs COL
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 3.34
|
3.84 | 3.62 | -0.22 | 47.6% | 30.4% | 17.7% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs NYM
Score 21.9 | Lineup K 3.88
|
3.10 | 3.26 | +0.16 | 40.5% | 24.1% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs ATH
Score 34.1 | Lineup K 4.37
|
2.67 | 2.95 | +0.28 | 34.2% | 19.0% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.