Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs PIT
Score 83.3 | Lineup K 7.11
|
6.37 | 6.74 | +0.37 | 86.0% | 75.2% | 62.4% | 49.1% | 36.7% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs NYY
Score 64.5 | Lineup K 6.49
|
5.91 | 6.18 | +0.27 | 81.9% | 69.4% | 55.4% | 41.7% | 29.7% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs PHI
Score 79.2 | Lineup K 6.59
|
5.70 | 6.09 | +0.39 | 81.2% | 68.3% | 54.2% | 40.5% | 28.6% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CIN
Score 55.3 | Lineup K 5.84
|
5.90 | 5.84 | -0.06 | 79.0% | 65.3% | 50.7% | 37.0% | 25.5% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs DET
Score 59.4 | Lineup K 5.93
|
5.54 | 5.66 | +0.12 | 77.2% | 63.0% | 48.1% | 34.5% | 23.4% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs SD
Score 58.3 | Lineup K 5.34
|
5.62 | 5.61 | -0.01 | 76.7% | 62.4% | 47.4% | 33.9% | 22.8% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs TOR
Score 56.3 | Lineup K 5.36
|
5.78 | 5.60 | -0.18 | 76.6% | 62.2% | 47.3% | 33.7% | 22.7% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs HOU
Score 55.6 | Lineup K 5.32
|
5.37 | 5.38 | +0.01 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs BOS
Score 45.2 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.80 | 5.02 | +0.22 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs SF
Score 39.4 | Lineup K 4.36
|
4.68 | 4.57 | -0.11 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 50.6 | Lineup K 5.13
|
4.27 | 4.57 | +0.30 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs MIL
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 4.99
|
4.34 | 4.56 | +0.22 | 63.6% | 46.6% | 31.5% | 19.8% | 11.7% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs TB
Score 60.6 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.27 | 4.43 | +0.16 | 61.6% | 44.4% | 29.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% |
Lucas Giolito
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SEA
Score 36.4 | Lineup K 5.42
|
3.87 | 4.33 | +0.46 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs MIA
Score 57.0 | Lineup K 4.46
|
4.28 | 4.32 | +0.04 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs CLE
Score 50.8 | Lineup K 4.97
|
3.90 | 4.23 | +0.33 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CWS
Score 44.8 | Lineup K 4.44
|
3.90 | 4.03 | +0.13 | 55.0% | 37.6% | 23.5% | 13.6% | 7.3% |
Stephen Kolek
Probable | projected
|
KC vs STL
Score 36.3 | Lineup K 4.59
|
3.72 | 3.98 | +0.26 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs AZ
Score 26.3 | Lineup K 3.85
|
4.13 | 3.96 | -0.17 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Brayan Bello
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs ATL
Score 31.3 | Lineup K 5.03
|
3.53 | 3.89 | +0.36 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs ATH
Score 42.9 | Lineup K 5.11
|
3.42 | 3.85 | +0.43 | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.9% | 11.7% | 6.1% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs CHC
Score 27.8 | Lineup K 4.39
|
3.65 | 3.80 | +0.15 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs KC
Score 27.8 | Lineup K 3.97
|
3.27 | 3.45 | +0.18 | 44.3% | 27.4% | 15.4% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs WSH
Score 25.3 | Lineup K 3.66
|
3.28 | 3.35 | +0.07 | 42.3% | 25.7% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.