Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SD
Score 58.0 | Lineup K 5.43
|
6.22 | 5.98 | -0.24 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs SEA
Score 65.2 | Lineup K 6.33
|
5.54 | 5.83 | +0.29 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs STL
Score 62.4 | Lineup K 5.68
|
5.77 | 5.80 | +0.03 | 78.6% | 64.8% | 50.1% | 36.5% | 25.1% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs HOU
Score 76.4 | Lineup K 6.14
|
5.33 | 5.73 | +0.40 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs NYY
Score 43.9 | Lineup K 5.77
|
5.52 | 5.58 | +0.06 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs NYM
Score 56.6 | Lineup K 5.49
|
5.63 | 5.55 | -0.08 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs MIL
Score 53.5 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.31 | 5.38 | +0.07 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs PIT
Score 49.5 | Lineup K 5.56
|
5.19 | 5.32 | +0.13 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CWS
Score 56.0 | Lineup K 5.13
|
5.38 | 5.26 | -0.12 | 72.9% | 57.5% | 42.2% | 29.0% | 18.8% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs TOR
Score 45.7 | Lineup K 5.09
|
4.82 | 4.90 | +0.08 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs ATH
Score 47.0 | Lineup K 5.10
|
4.28 | 4.56 | +0.28 | 63.6% | 46.6% | 31.5% | 19.8% | 11.7% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs WSH
Score 38.5 | Lineup K 4.62
|
4.58 | 4.55 | -0.03 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 37.0 | Lineup K 5.10
|
4.23 | 4.49 | +0.26 | 62.5% | 45.4% | 30.4% | 18.9% | 11.0% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs CHC
Score 33.0 | Lineup K 4.13
|
4.30 | 4.18 | -0.12 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAA
Score 44.8 | Lineup K 5.28
|
3.75 | 4.18 | +0.43 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Stephen Kolek
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CIN
Score 37.4 | Lineup K 5.10
|
3.73 | 4.14 | +0.41 | 56.9% | 39.5% | 25.1% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs DET
Score 36.4 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.85 | 4.07 | +0.22 | 55.7% | 38.3% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Patrick Corbin
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs ATL
Score 24.4 | Lineup K 4.76
|
3.73 | 4.01 | +0.28 | 54.7% | 37.2% | 23.2% | 13.4% | 7.2% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs BOS
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 5.66
|
3.41 | 3.82 | +0.41 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs TEX
Score 26.5 | Lineup K 4.42
|
3.27 | 3.59 | +0.32 | 47.0% | 29.8% | 17.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIN
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.86
|
3.27 | 3.58 | +0.31 | 46.8% | 29.7% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs PHI
Score 27.0 | Lineup K 4.25
|
3.10 | 3.41 | +0.31 | 43.5% | 26.7% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.