Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 72.8 | Lineup K 6.43
|
6.14 | 6.36 | +0.22 | 83.4% | 71.4% | 57.7% | 44.1% | 32.0% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs COL
Score 76.4 | Lineup K 6.51
|
5.08 | 5.70 | +0.62 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CIN
Score 55.4 | Lineup K 5.84
|
5.52 | 5.66 | +0.14 | 77.2% | 63.0% | 48.1% | 34.5% | 23.4% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIA
Score 61.8 | Lineup K 5.91
|
4.93 | 5.32 | +0.39 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 49.8 | Lineup K 5.03
|
5.38 | 5.26 | -0.12 | 72.9% | 57.5% | 42.2% | 29.0% | 18.8% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PHI
Score 44.0 | Lineup K 5.55
|
5.08 | 5.22 | +0.14 | 72.4% | 56.9% | 41.6% | 28.5% | 18.4% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs LAD
Score 48.2 | Lineup K 5.68
|
4.56 | 4.94 | +0.38 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIN
Score 48.5 | Lineup K 5.29
|
4.73 | 4.92 | +0.19 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Shane Bieber
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs WSH
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 4.96
|
4.58 | 4.71 | +0.13 | 65.8% | 49.0% | 33.8% | 21.7% | 13.1% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs DET
Score 45.2 | Lineup K 5.11
|
4.43 | 4.65 | +0.22 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs MIL
Score 33.7 | Lineup K 4.30
|
4.64 | 4.46 | -0.18 | 62.1% | 44.9% | 30.0% | 18.6% | 10.8% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs PIT
Score 44.1 | Lineup K 5.10
|
4.08 | 4.42 | +0.34 | 61.5% | 44.3% | 29.4% | 18.1% | 10.4% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 43.9 | Lineup K 4.77
|
3.90 | 4.18 | +0.28 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs CIN
Score 41.5 | Lineup K 4.98
|
3.80 | 4.18 | +0.38 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs SD
Score 30.6 | Lineup K 4.35
|
3.75 | 3.90 | +0.15 | 52.7% | 35.3% | 21.6% | 12.2% | 6.5% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs TOR
Score 28.9 | Lineup K 4.27
|
3.42 | 3.65 | +0.23 | 48.1% | 30.9% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 23.3 | Lineup K 3.83
|
2.96 | 3.19 | +0.23 | 39.1% | 22.9% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
Cal Quantrill
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs TB
Score 24.9 | Lineup K 3.67
|
2.84 | 3.07 | +0.23 | 36.7% | 20.9% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.