Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs STL
Score 73.8 | Lineup K 6.40
|
6.94 | 6.88 | -0.06 | 86.9% | 76.5% | 64.0% | 50.9% | 38.5% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TEX
Score 67.8 | Lineup K 6.12
|
6.44 | 6.42 | -0.02 | 83.8% | 72.0% | 58.5% | 44.9% | 32.7% |
Hunter Greene
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs PIT
Score 75.1 | Lineup K 6.26
|
6.27 | 6.39 | +0.12 | 83.6% | 71.7% | 58.1% | 44.5% | 32.3% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs CIN
Score 85.7 | Lineup K 6.99
|
5.33 | 6.08 | +0.75 | 81.1% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 40.3% | 28.5% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs NYY
Score 48.6 | Lineup K 5.53
|
5.35 | 5.41 | +0.06 | 74.6% | 59.6% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs HOU
Score 55.6 | Lineup K 5.32
|
5.38 | 5.38 | +0.00 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Kodai Senga
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs MIA
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 5.80
|
4.83 | 5.21 | +0.38 | 72.3% | 56.8% | 41.5% | 28.4% | 18.2% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs WSH
Score 36.3 | Lineup K 4.52
|
5.24 | 4.93 | -0.31 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs SEA
Score 43.6 | Lineup K 5.43
|
4.68 | 4.92 | +0.24 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs COL
Score 54.3 | Lineup K 5.43
|
4.60 | 4.91 | +0.31 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs AZ
Score 47.5 | Lineup K 4.79
|
4.97 | 4.90 | -0.07 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs CHC
Score 40.5 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.74 | 4.80 | +0.06 | 67.0% | 50.5% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs MIN
Score 49.3 | Lineup K 5.12
|
4.43 | 4.67 | +0.24 | 65.2% | 48.4% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.7% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs DET
Score 37.4 | Lineup K 4.63
|
4.68 | 4.62 | -0.06 | 64.5% | 47.6% | 32.5% | 20.6% | 12.2% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs LAD
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 5.10
|
4.25 | 4.52 | +0.27 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs CWS
Score 42.3 | Lineup K 4.18
|
3.85 | 3.94 | +0.09 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs PHI
Score 26.9 | Lineup K 4.36
|
3.67 | 3.84 | +0.17 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs TB
Score 33.9 | Lineup K 4.17
|
3.27 | 3.54 | +0.27 | 46.0% | 29.0% | 16.6% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs KC
Score 22.8 | Lineup K 3.46
|
3.41 | 3.35 | -0.06 | 42.3% | 25.7% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYM
Score 20.9 | Lineup K 3.52
|
3.19 | 3.23 | +0.04 | 39.9% | 23.6% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.