Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs CHC
Score 67.9 | Lineup K 6.12
|
6.56 | 6.50 | -0.06 | 84.4% | 72.8% | 59.5% | 46.0% | 33.7% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs WSH
Score 65.7 | Lineup K 5.75
|
6.22 | 6.13 | -0.09 | 81.5% | 68.8% | 54.7% | 41.0% | 29.1% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SEA
Score 54.0 | Lineup K 6.59
|
4.57 | 5.13 | +0.56 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs BOS
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 5.84
|
4.56 | 5.03 | +0.47 | 70.1% | 54.1% | 38.8% | 25.9% | 16.3% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIN
Score 46.6 | Lineup K 4.96
|
4.98 | 4.96 | -0.02 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CWS
Score 55.1 | Lineup K 5.08
|
4.63 | 4.81 | +0.18 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs TOR
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.91
|
4.74 | 4.76 | +0.02 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs DET
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 5.06
|
4.43 | 4.64 | +0.21 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs ATH
Score 50.4 | Lineup K 5.33
|
4.01 | 4.43 | +0.42 | 61.6% | 44.4% | 29.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs PIT
Score 36.3 | Lineup K 4.94
|
4.20 | 4.41 | +0.21 | 61.3% | 44.1% | 29.2% | 18.0% | 10.3% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 50.7 | Lineup K 4.84
|
3.97 | 4.28 | +0.31 | 59.2% | 41.9% | 27.2% | 16.4% | 9.3% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs LAA
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.81
|
3.67 | 4.02 | +0.35 | 54.9% | 37.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIA
Score 30.2 | Lineup K 4.25
|
3.48 | 3.69 | +0.21 | 48.9% | 31.6% | 18.6% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PHI
Score 23.7 | Lineup K 3.97
|
3.00 | 3.27 | +0.27 | 40.7% | 24.3% | 13.2% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATL
Score 19.4 | Lineup K 3.41
|
3.19 | 3.19 | +0.00 | 39.1% | 22.9% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 18.8 | Lineup K 3.40
|
3.10 | 3.13 | +0.03 | 37.9% | 21.9% | 11.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.