Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TOR
Score 66.4 | Lineup K 5.76
|
6.44 | 6.22 | -0.22 | 82.3% | 69.8% | 55.9% | 42.2% | 30.2% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs MIL
Score 75.9 | Lineup K 6.05
|
5.33 | 5.70 | +0.37 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs DET
Score 67.4 | Lineup K 5.82
|
5.09 | 5.42 | +0.33 | 74.7% | 59.8% | 44.6% | 31.2% | 20.6% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CWS
Score 69.9 | Lineup K 5.92
|
4.68 | 5.20 | +0.52 | 72.2% | 56.6% | 41.3% | 28.2% | 18.1% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs STL
Score 50.9 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.12 | 5.20 | +0.08 | 72.2% | 56.6% | 41.3% | 28.2% | 18.1% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs NYM
Score 49.8 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.97 | 5.17 | +0.20 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs LAD
Score 38.7 | Lineup K 4.91
|
5.35 | 5.15 | -0.20 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIA
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.97
|
5.24 | 5.11 | -0.13 | 71.1% | 55.3% | 40.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs LAA
Score 49.8 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.72 | 5.07 | +0.35 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs PIT
Score 42.2 | Lineup K 4.98
|
5.12 | 5.04 | -0.08 | 70.2% | 54.2% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs CIN
Score 65.6 | Lineup K 5.99
|
4.21 | 4.77 | +0.56 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIN
Score 43.6 | Lineup K 4.92
|
4.38 | 4.59 | +0.21 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs ATL
Score 51.6 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.28 | 4.55 | +0.27 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 42.3 | Lineup K 4.61
|
4.43 | 4.51 | +0.08 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs AZ
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 3.90
|
4.77 | 4.39 | -0.38 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs HOU
Score 35.8 | Lineup K 4.37
|
4.25 | 4.20 | -0.05 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs PHI
Score 30.5 | Lineup K 4.70
|
3.90 | 4.11 | +0.21 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs CHC
Score 34.3 | Lineup K 4.22
|
3.89 | 3.96 | +0.07 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs BOS
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 4.59
|
3.67 | 3.93 | +0.26 | 53.3% | 35.8% | 22.0% | 12.5% | 6.7% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs COL
Score 50.1 | Lineup K 5.07
|
3.47 | 3.89 | +0.42 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs TB
Score 28.7 | Lineup K 3.48
|
3.41 | 3.38 | -0.03 | 42.9% | 26.2% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs NYY
Score 24.5 | Lineup K 4.81
|
2.89 | 3.17 | +0.28 | 38.7% | 22.6% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.