Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs TOR
Score 78.4 | Lineup K 6.71
|
6.77 | 6.90 | +0.13 | 87.0% | 76.7% | 64.3% | 51.1% | 38.7% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TB
Score 69.2 | Lineup K 5.51
|
6.50 | 6.25 | -0.25 | 82.5% | 70.2% | 56.3% | 42.6% | 30.6% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs BAL
Score 55.0 | Lineup K 5.66
|
5.75 | 5.68 | -0.07 | 77.4% | 63.3% | 48.4% | 34.8% | 23.6% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs ATL
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 5.89
|
5.50 | 5.66 | +0.16 | 77.2% | 63.0% | 48.1% | 34.5% | 23.4% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs PHI
Score 44.6 | Lineup K 5.81
|
5.55 | 5.62 | +0.07 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs KC
Score 55.4 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.54 | 5.49 | -0.05 | 75.5% | 60.7% | 45.7% | 32.2% | 21.4% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SD vs HOU
Score 45.9 | Lineup K 5.14
|
5.58 | 5.41 | -0.17 | 74.6% | 59.6% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Ronel Blanco
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SD
Score 49.0 | Lineup K 5.11
|
4.82 | 4.92 | +0.10 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TEX
Score 47.7 | Lineup K 5.44
|
4.65 | 4.87 | +0.22 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs MIL
Score 44.2 | Lineup K 4.94
|
4.68 | 4.75 | +0.07 | 66.3% | 49.7% | 34.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 39.2 | Lineup K 5.12
|
4.36 | 4.59 | +0.23 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYY
Score 38.8 | Lineup K 4.83
|
4.02 | 4.26 | +0.24 | 58.9% | 41.5% | 26.9% | 16.2% | 9.1% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs SEA
Score 46.4 | Lineup K 4.60
|
3.90 | 4.13 | +0.23 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs STL
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 4.79
|
3.42 | 3.81 | +0.39 | 51.1% | 33.7% | 20.3% | 11.3% | 5.9% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs CIN
Score 40.7 | Lineup K 5.25
|
3.42 | 3.80 | +0.38 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SF
Score 35.6 | Lineup K 3.90
|
3.10 | 3.34 | +0.24 | 42.1% | 25.5% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs NYM
Score 16.1 | Lineup K 2.83
|
3.56 | 3.21 | -0.35 | 39.5% | 23.3% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.