Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs KC
Score 76.2 | Lineup K 6.21
|
6.53 | 6.55 | +0.02 | 84.7% | 73.3% | 60.1% | 46.6% | 34.3% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAA
Score 65.9 | Lineup K 6.25
|
5.77 | 6.01 | +0.24 | 80.5% | 67.4% | 53.1% | 39.4% | 27.6% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs ATH
Score 73.2 | Lineup K 6.43
|
5.54 | 5.96 | +0.42 | 80.1% | 66.8% | 52.4% | 38.7% | 27.0% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 30.2 | Lineup K 4.85
|
5.24 | 5.02 | -0.22 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs BAL
Score 42.5 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.81 | 4.94 | +0.13 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TOR
Score 62.9 | Lineup K 5.82
|
4.30 | 4.87 | +0.57 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 50.1 | Lineup K 5.13
|
4.65 | 4.82 | +0.17 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TB
Score 59.4 | Lineup K 5.13
|
4.59 | 4.81 | +0.22 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIL
Score 35.4 | Lineup K 4.33
|
5.14 | 4.80 | -0.34 | 67.0% | 50.5% | 35.2% | 22.9% | 14.0% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIN
Score 47.3 | Lineup K 5.24
|
4.34 | 4.64 | +0.30 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BOS
Score 36.6 | Lineup K 4.54
|
4.63 | 4.55 | -0.08 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SF
Score 45.2 | Lineup K 4.50
|
4.09 | 4.18 | +0.09 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs LAD
Score 30.7 | Lineup K 4.66
|
4.00 | 4.17 | +0.17 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable | projected
|
STL vs PHI
Score 29.0 | Lineup K 3.99
|
3.52 | 3.62 | +0.10 | 47.6% | 30.4% | 17.7% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.