Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blake Snell
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs COL
Score 85.6 | Lineup K 7.35
|
5.75 | 6.49 | +0.74 | 84.3% | 72.7% | 59.4% | 45.8% | 33.6% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIA
Score 68.0 | Lineup K 5.92
|
6.23 | 6.21 | -0.02 | 82.2% | 69.7% | 55.8% | 42.1% | 30.1% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs PIT
Score 62.9 | Lineup K 6.48
|
4.60 | 5.21 | +0.61 | 72.3% | 56.8% | 41.5% | 28.4% | 18.2% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CWS
Score 54.5 | Lineup K 4.80
|
5.35 | 5.18 | -0.17 | 71.9% | 56.3% | 41.0% | 28.0% | 17.9% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs ATH
Score 48.5 | Lineup K 5.17
|
5.00 | 5.05 | +0.05 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs CHC
Score 55.0 | Lineup K 5.64
|
4.58 | 4.97 | +0.39 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs ATL
Score 41.3 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.36 | 4.52 | +0.16 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TB
Score 29.7 | Lineup K 3.77
|
3.31 | 3.41 | +0.10 | 43.5% | 26.7% | 14.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIN
Score 27.7 | Lineup K 4.39
|
3.12 | 3.40 | +0.28 | 43.3% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 15.7 | Lineup K 3.62
|
3.42 | 3.39 | -0.03 | 43.1% | 26.4% | 14.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs NYM
Score 17.7 | Lineup K 4.01
|
3.11 | 3.34 | +0.23 | 42.1% | 25.5% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PHI
Score 28.2 | Lineup K 3.74
|
3.20 | 3.33 | +0.13 | 41.9% | 25.3% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs DET
Score 23.8 | Lineup K 2.98
|
3.57 | 3.29 | -0.28 | 41.1% | 24.6% | 13.4% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CIN
Score 36.9 | Lineup K 4.97
|
2.90 | 3.21 | +0.31 | 39.5% | 23.3% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.