Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs NYY
Score 63.9 | Lineup K 6.78
|
6.95 | 6.97 | +0.02 | 87.4% | 77.3% | 65.0% | 52.0% | 39.6% |
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs MIL
Score 80.8 | Lineup K 6.63
|
6.55 | 6.74 | +0.19 | 86.0% | 75.2% | 62.4% | 49.1% | 36.7% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SEA
Score 65.5 | Lineup K 6.39
|
6.46 | 6.52 | +0.06 | 84.5% | 73.0% | 59.7% | 46.2% | 34.0% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs BAL
Score 68.5 | Lineup K 6.34
|
5.93 | 6.16 | +0.23 | 81.8% | 69.2% | 55.1% | 41.4% | 29.5% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs MIA
Score 61.9 | Lineup K 5.74
|
5.19 | 5.43 | +0.24 | 74.8% | 59.9% | 44.8% | 31.4% | 20.7% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs SD
Score 53.0 | Lineup K 5.40
|
4.99 | 5.15 | +0.16 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs HOU
Score 64.8 | Lineup K 5.48
|
4.74 | 5.06 | +0.32 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Edward Cabrera
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs STL
Score 56.0 | Lineup K 5.41
|
4.81 | 5.04 | +0.23 | 70.2% | 54.2% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TEX
Score 57.4 | Lineup K 5.63
|
4.60 | 4.99 | +0.39 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs PHI
Score 46.7 | Lineup K 5.27
|
4.81 | 4.96 | +0.15 | 69.2% | 53.0% | 37.7% | 25.0% | 15.6% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CIN
Score 68.5 | Lineup K 5.71
|
4.29 | 4.86 | +0.57 | 67.8% | 51.4% | 36.1% | 23.7% | 14.5% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs AZ
Score 26.0 | Lineup K 4.17
|
5.26 | 4.74 | -0.52 | 66.2% | 49.5% | 34.3% | 22.1% | 13.4% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TOR
Score 32.5 | Lineup K 4.22
|
4.88 | 4.58 | -0.30 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs CLE
Score 44.5 | Lineup K 4.21
|
4.78 | 4.56 | -0.22 | 63.6% | 46.6% | 31.5% | 19.8% | 11.7% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs LAA
Score 46.9 | Lineup K 5.42
|
4.02 | 4.49 | +0.47 | 62.5% | 45.4% | 30.4% | 18.9% | 11.0% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TB
Score 46.0 | Lineup K 4.76
|
4.35 | 4.48 | +0.13 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs ATL
Score 27.7 | Lineup K 4.37
|
4.29 | 4.20 | -0.09 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs NYM
Score 20.9 | Lineup K 4.45
|
3.92 | 4.01 | +0.09 | 54.7% | 37.2% | 23.2% | 13.4% | 7.2% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs DET
Score 33.9 | Lineup K 4.68
|
3.69 | 3.98 | +0.29 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CHC
Score 24.2 | Lineup K 3.68
|
3.15 | 3.27 | +0.12 | 40.7% | 24.3% | 13.2% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.