Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIA
Score 83.1 | Lineup K 7.18
|
6.79 | 7.11 | +0.32 | 88.2% | 78.5% | 66.6% | 53.8% | 41.3% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CWS
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 5.35
|
5.94 | 5.78 | -0.16 | 78.4% | 64.6% | 49.9% | 36.2% | 24.8% |
Carlos Rodón
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BAL
Score 52.8 | Lineup K 6.04
|
5.54 | 5.73 | +0.19 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs TB
Score 45.5 | Lineup K 5.12
|
5.58 | 5.40 | -0.18 | 74.5% | 59.5% | 44.3% | 31.0% | 20.4% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs NYY
Score 45.4 | Lineup K 5.84
|
5.05 | 5.31 | +0.26 | 73.5% | 58.2% | 43.0% | 29.7% | 19.4% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SD vs NYM
Score 42.7 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.21 | 5.27 | +0.06 | 73.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs SEA
Score 37.4 | Lineup K 5.09
|
5.14 | 5.07 | -0.07 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs ATL
Score 39.2 | Lineup K 5.08
|
5.07 | 5.03 | -0.04 | 70.1% | 54.1% | 38.8% | 25.9% | 16.3% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs AZ
Score 44.2 | Lineup K 4.53
|
4.65 | 4.59 | -0.06 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs BOS
Score 45.9 | Lineup K 5.31
|
3.99 | 4.44 | +0.45 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs STL
Score 49.7 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.03 | 4.36 | +0.33 | 60.5% | 43.2% | 28.5% | 17.4% | 9.9% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs COL
Score 53.8 | Lineup K 5.16
|
3.90 | 4.35 | +0.45 | 60.4% | 43.1% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs MIL
Score 44.1 | Lineup K 4.71
|
4.06 | 4.27 | +0.21 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIN
Score 41.6 | Lineup K 4.51
|
4.03 | 4.17 | +0.14 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 27.8 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.82 | 3.98 | +0.16 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs TOR
Score 34.1 | Lineup K 4.04
|
3.86 | 3.87 | +0.01 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs LAA
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 5.55
|
3.45 | 3.86 | +0.41 | 52.0% | 34.6% | 21.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs PIT
Score 31.0 | Lineup K 4.00
|
3.12 | 3.38 | +0.26 | 42.9% | 26.2% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
Cal Quantrill
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs WSH
Score 19.7 | Lineup K 3.60
|
3.23 | 3.25 | +0.02 | 40.3% | 24.0% | 12.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.