Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs MIL
Score 68.9 | Lineup K 5.72
|
6.14 | 6.08 | -0.06 | 81.1% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 40.3% | 28.5% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs DET
Score 77.7 | Lineup K 6.45
|
5.72 | 6.05 | +0.33 | 80.8% | 67.9% | 53.6% | 39.9% | 28.1% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIA
Score 61.2 | Lineup K 5.91
|
5.32 | 5.58 | +0.26 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs ATL
Score 46.9 | Lineup K 5.37
|
5.40 | 5.38 | -0.02 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs ATH
Score 51.9 | Lineup K 5.54
|
5.14 | 5.29 | +0.15 | 73.2% | 57.9% | 42.7% | 29.5% | 19.1% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs NYM
Score 57.6 | Lineup K 5.77
|
4.72 | 5.07 | +0.35 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PHI
Score 43.1 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.73 | 4.99 | +0.26 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BAL
Score 42.8 | Lineup K 5.49
|
4.75 | 4.98 | +0.23 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs SEA
Score 32.3 | Lineup K 5.12
|
4.22 | 4.47 | +0.25 | 62.2% | 45.1% | 30.1% | 18.7% | 10.9% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs BOS
Score 40.6 | Lineup K 5.04
|
4.10 | 4.40 | +0.30 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs NYY
Score 46.8 | Lineup K 6.05
|
3.80 | 4.25 | +0.45 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs TOR
Score 50.0 | Lineup K 4.17
|
4.29 | 4.25 | -0.04 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CWS
Score 40.8 | Lineup K 4.50
|
4.08 | 4.20 | +0.12 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs WSH
Score 35.9 | Lineup K 4.22
|
4.23 | 4.14 | -0.09 | 56.9% | 39.5% | 25.1% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs KC
Score 33.1 | Lineup K 3.92
|
4.32 | 4.12 | -0.20 | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.8% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIN
Score 27.7 | Lineup K 4.39
|
4.01 | 4.07 | +0.06 | 55.7% | 38.3% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs LAD
Score 18.3 | Lineup K 3.92
|
4.07 | 3.92 | -0.15 | 53.1% | 35.6% | 21.9% | 12.4% | 6.6% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CIN
Score 31.0 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.47 | 3.77 | +0.30 | 50.4% | 33.0% | 19.8% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
Jackson Jobe
Probable | projected
|
DET vs PIT
Score 19.8 | Lineup K 4.52
|
3.53 | 3.75 | +0.22 | 50.0% | 32.6% | 19.5% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs TB
Score 54.1 | Lineup K 4.75
|
3.30 | 3.71 | +0.41 | 49.3% | 31.9% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 5.2% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs TEX
Score 29.5 | Lineup K 4.67
|
3.06 | 3.34 | +0.28 | 42.1% | 25.5% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.